Event/Announcement Details and Archive

aWhere, Inc., a Colorado company, provides a location and time-based data management system for global development initiatives. Focused on agriculture and public health, aWhere utilizes scalable, enterprise database technology to provide interactive visual and analytical access to a variety of data (weather, soils, socio-economic, field trials, agro-ecological, etc.) aimed towards improved decisions and intervention targeting. These technologies have the potential to be the foundation of a strong industry/research partnership allowing NCAR/UCAR research, education and technology products & surveys to be delivered worldwide to/from end-users with detailed customizations for location, application, and user capability. The seminar will be be followed by an open discussion exploring specific areas of collaboration between aWhere and NCAR/UCAR. This seminar and discussion builds upon the UCAR/HUB Boulder [http://www.hubboulder.com], whose values mirror ours in many ways: "(putting) into action the best ideas, systems and technology that creates a more just and sustainable world."

Understanding the socio-economic impacts of weather provides a basis for prioritizing actions to mitigate and respond to weather events and understanding the value of improvements in weather forecasts. In this talk I’ll discuss four different topics in the economics of weather and weather forecasts: (1) the economic impacts of weather, (2) the value of current forecasts, (3) the value of improved forecasts, and (4) the value of research to improve forecasts. In each topic area I’ll present one or more applications of empirical research, discuss the theoretical and conceptual basis of the methods and results, and the potential use of information from such research in policy and decision making. I’ll briefly present results from other studies illustrating a range of applications of economics to weather impacts and weather forecasting as well as interdisciplinary ties to related social sciences such as communication and psychology. While the primary focus is weather related I’ll note that the methods and applications can be extended to issues in the water and climate arenas as well.

Most operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models consistently over-predict irradiance along the California coast, especially during the summer months. Since this region represents significant capacity and potential for distributed photovoltaic generation, accurate solar forecasts are critical. To improve forecast accuracy, a high-resolution, direct-cloud-assimilating NWP based on the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF-CLDDA) was developed and implemented at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD). Using satellite imagery, clouds are directly assimilated into the initial conditions resulting in hour-ahead and day-ahead improvements in forecast accuracy. Multi-model ensembles have been constructed and the sensitivity of cloud cover to different model parameters has been evaluated. A whole-sky imager hardware and forecast algorithm have been developed at UCSD. The forecast method and a month of validation data will be presented and applications for 15 minutes-ahead forecasting in Puerto Rico will be discussed.

The impact of winter weather conditions on airport capacity involves a complex relationship among several factors including precipitation rate and type, temperature, deicing capabilities, snow removal equipment, and airport procedures. This seminar introduces an airport capacity model which accounts for winter weather conditions. The model is based on statistical relationships observed among weather conditions, historical departure counts, and derived weather-related metrics across three consecutive winter seasons. A set of linear coefficients is defined specific to each airport for relating reported winter weather conditions with observed deviations in airport departure rates. These coefficients are applied to translate winter weather forecasts into airport capacity estimates accounting for empirical distributions in weather forecast uncertainty. Model predictions are compared against observed airport throughput during an actual winter weather event.

Rapid changes are occurring throughout Colorado’s snow system, challenging water management throughout the state and region. The Senator Beck Basin Study Area, strategically located in the spectacular, alpine terrain at Red Mountain Pass, is producing transformative snow hydrology science and building long-term, integrative datasets. Strategically located in a Colorado River basin headwater snow ‘hot spot’, and very near the headwaters of the Rio Grande River, Senator Beck Basin is performing as both a sentry site for regional change and as a field science asset for researchers pursuing urgently required new understanding of how snow hydrology and mountain system processes are responding.