FXUS61 KCLE 081128
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LAKES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY LIKE TODAY WONT COME UNTIL '08. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE JULY IN OCTOBER WEATHER WITH LITTLE/NO CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
TONIGHT HOWEVER IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MANUAL PROGS NAM AND GFS POSITIONS
ALL CLOSE WITH CDFNT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF KCLE 12Z TUESDAY. BOTH
MODELS GENERATING LIFT AND DEEP RH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS WEST OVERNIGHT AND A CHANCE EAST.
ALTHOUGH A DIURNAL MIN FOR THUNDER WILL NEED TO CARRY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS. WILL NEED TO WORD IN
RECORD/NEAR RECORD FOR MFD...YNG...ERIE PA...AND CLE GROUPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE NOT TO BE UNEXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEP CLOSED
UPPER SYSTEM. NOT SURE HOW RELEVANT DIFFERENCES ARE AT THIS POINT
HOWEVER. BIG PICTURE WILL PREVAIL IN THAT IT WILL TURN MUCH
COOLER...CLOUDIER AND SHOWERY ON BALANCE THROUGH MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. FOR TUESDAY COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL
AND EAST IN THE MORNING. DRY SLOT WORKS IN QUICK HOWEVER AND GIVEN
THE DRY AND AND RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ROTATE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA. SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP 850MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN 0 AND +4
DEPENDING ON MODEL. EITHER WAY...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WOULD
EXPECT INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP GIVEN THE WARM WATERS HOWEVER
WINDS MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE TO BRING SHOWERS ONSHORE UNTIL LATE
WEEK AS WINDS TURN NLY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM MIDWEEK ON THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD
AS GFS INDICATED UPPER LOW TO DIVE INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION WHILE
ECMWF TRACKS UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION AND THEN INTO NEW YORK
STATE BY THURSDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN
TRACKING THE UPPER LOW MAINLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THE LOW WEAKENS OVER NEW
ENGLAND THE ECMWF SHOWS AN EMBEDDED TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
PRIMARY LOW THAT WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD.

HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT BEGAN TRANSITION OF DECREASING POPS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND THEN DRYING OUT WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST AREAS
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND COOL H850 TEMPS
ALOFT...CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS ON SAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS ACROSS FAR SE AREAS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECTING MUCH OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...GOING FROM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN SHORT TERM TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ECMWF H850 TEMPS AROUND 0C BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN LIKELY
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS LOWERED TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AT NIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO ONLY
FALL BACK AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM MAXES SO DID NOT WANT TO GO LOWER
THAN MID 40S THROUGH FRIDAY. INTO WEEKEND DID TREND TOWARDS LOWER
40S FOR LOWS BY END OF THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR BECOMES MORE SETTLED
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY TODAY BUT WITH HIGH OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME IT IS GOING TO TAKE
SOME TIME TO GET THAT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...I AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL
KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z.

IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MVFR FOG IN SOME OF
THE LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z GIVING WAY TO FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS RACING SOUTHEAST INTO
ERIE AREA NOW.

WIND FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY END OF THE PERIOD.
LAKE BREEZE MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO ERIE SO I USED A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND FOR THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS SEEM IN AGREEMENT WITH NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SOME TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND AS IT MOVES EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE LAKE AT THE
SURFACE BUT 925 MB WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS HIGHER
THAN AT THE SURFACE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WIND FORECAST DUE
TO COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALLOWING MIXING TO OCCUR DOWN TO
THE LAKE SURFACE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IN THE MEAN TIME...LIGHT
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MIXED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO SHIFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF THE
LAKE.  THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY