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The RT-FDDA system was developed to provide high-resolution
short-term analyses/forecasts (0-12 h). However,
recent advances in computing power have allowed
for a much longer forecast cycle; up to 36 h at
current operational sites given the present grid
and model physics configuration. In contrast,
the twice-daily MM5 runs were specifically designed
to provide long term forecasts (24-48 h).
RT-FDDA employs a time-continuous assimilation
of a variety of synoptic and asynoptic observation
data including:
* METAR observations (includes "Specials")
* Ship/buoy observations
* Local surface observations
* WMO rawinsonde observations
* NESDIS satellite-derived winds
* ACARS aircraft observations
These data sets have time frequencies varying
from 5 min to 3 h, and are assimilated into the
RT-FDDA system at their particular valid time.
By comparison, the twice-daily MM5 forecasts
are limited to incorporating those observation
data available at the synoptic times. These data
are only used to improve the first guess at the
initial time of the forecast cycle. Therefore,
the twice-daily MM5 forecasts have a strong dependence
on errors in the first guess. However, because
the RT-FDDA cycles execute over a long period
of time , errors can accumulate in regions without
much data, although we have not observed major
problems in this regard.
RT-FDDA analyses/forecasts do not generally suffer
from model 'spin up' issues. Thus at any time,
the RT-FDDA forecasts contain realistic and detailed
mesoscale atmospheric structures, including cloud
and precipitation systems, and local thermally-forced
circulations. It should be noted that RT-FDDA
does not assimilate cloud/precipitation data.
The diagnosed cloud and precipitation systems
in the analysis cycles result from the vertical
motion and humidity assimilated from the available
data.
The twice-daily MM5 forecasts, by comparison,
are initialized using a 'cold start' methodology.
This means that they start with no cloud and precipitation
systems, or local thermally-driven circulations.
Therefore, a certain amount of model 'spin up'
time is required for the atmosphere, as it is
represented by the MM5, to begin responding to
the mesoscale forcing resulting from variations
in the local complex physiography.
In summary, the characteristics of the RT-FDDA
system generally contribute to a superior analysis/forecast
compared to the twice daily MM5 forecast system.
However, the advantages of RT-FDDA over the MM5
tend to decrease as the length of the forecast
increases. This is principally due to the fact
that the lateral boundary conditions employed
by the MM5 and RT-FDDA systems are quite similar,
and tend to have a stronger influence as the forecast
length increases.
Lastly, the RT-FDDA system is temporarily employing
a simple surface energy physics package. However,
the RT-FDDA development team is busily working
toward coupling Oregon State University land surface
model (OSU LSM) to system. The new system incorporates
many recent research/test results by the NCAR
RTFDDA developers. Some major improvements are
listed as following:
1. Land Surface Model (LSM): with more detailed
and accurate soil physics than previous SLAB soil
model.
2. Increase of the vertical model level from 31
to 36 and keep the level-distribution density
with height. In other words, the resolution is
increased in all troposphere and with more improvement
in PBL layer.
3. An improved obs Quality_Control (QC) scheme
that could effectively QC every kind of observations
measured at any location, height and time. Previously
only those obs that are located closed model 1st-guess
levels were QC-ed.
4. More strict QC constraints. Working together
with 3), it makes the system high quality and
reliability.
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