Balloon launch at 17:17 Z. Launch procedure was to swing sonde until temp stabilzed then record the press, temp and humidity. The surface point was then manually put in using this data and the winds off the CR10. The sonde was also swung for the minute prior to launch.
Thin line visible at 17:28Z. Center point 82deg 31 km from KFTG. Boundary orientation 120deg moving to the S SW. Radar shut down at 19:05Z with boundary still visible. Radar didn't return until around 20:30. At this time there was a slow moving boundary just south of the radar oriented E-W moving to the N NW. Nothing ever formed on this boundary. At 21:21 cells began to form on the foothills around 74 km to the NW of the radar.
Nice outflow produced around 00Z to the NW of radar ~20 km. It becomes well defined and moves to the SE passing through the radar around 0100. This could be a good migfa boundary.
Sounding was very moist and stable today. The day was filled with stratiform rain. Not much else to say. There was no satellite images available. Problem on the other end not with anything here. There has been an interesting problem with the sonde today and yesturday. It seems that the sonde and van have been reading very similar temps but the first point off the sonde after launch is almost 2deg c cooler. Both days have been cloudy.
The sounding was still fairly stable today. There was clearing skies by 16Z this morning with temps in the upper 40`s to low 50`s. We held out minimal hope and kept mobile at the NWS for a possible 20Z sounding. By 19:30z we decided there was no reason to keep them out and brought them home. There were only small cu all day with some showers breaking out over the mtns in the late afternoon.
There is still no satellite data coming in because of changes made on the macidas end. We will have to make software changes here before we can get satellite images again. Mike doesnt know when he can get to that.
0130 - AP starts and continues till 0400. 0330 - Very good clear air signal. 0400 - Isolated cells 70-80km to the NE and 80km to S. 0422 - Line forming centered at 60km and 30deg. Bdy ~at the radar oriented E-W and moving against strong southerly flow. 0434 - Another line of cells 30km 45deg. Area of cells 80 km to ESE. 0503 - Still two well defined lines. Bdy now 15km S of radar. Max ref. 55-60 dB. 0522 - Bdy still visible intersecting eastern cells which are now a line . Centered at 80km 135deg, 60 km length in each direction. 0550 - Outflow off E strms 50 km 120 deg. 0607 - SE & NNE lines are still active. 0706 - Stil active, located at radar extending to NE 90+ km and an area 80 km to ESE. Cell movement is to the NE. 1100 - end of interesting weather. 1521 - Isolated convection breaks out. 1550 - Large area of convection 50km to SE and 50 km to the NE. Movement to the ESE
0200 - AP to the north, gone by 0630.
AP to N 0030 and gone by 0500. Ridge of high pressure over us. The sounding was very dry with inversion around 550mb. Some small cu did stream of the mountains but it was clear for the remainder of the region. AP between 80 and 100 km north of the radar between 16:25Z and around 17:30Z. AP again visible from ~2330 till 0650Z on the 13th.
Ap 00z - 0650
AP appearing again today in the same general area as yestruday. First visible at 15:49Z and gone by 18:00Z. Cirus deck covering the front range through early afternoon (mountain wave cloud). Some small cu did form along the foothills. We lost radar data at 20:35Z but the radar was up. Looking at the kavorus(?) data there was a line of convection that formed just W NW of limon around 22:30 moving to the east. Radar data coming in again at 23:56. See an outflow boundary center 82km at 70deg, orientation NW-SE, moving to the NE. AP is again showing up at 00:41Z and goes away by 05:20.
AP again today. First visible at 15:56Z and gone by 18:10Z. Cu fields more extensive today. Moisture wave shallow and mixed out as the day progressed. 20:00Z small cell 80 km S of radar produced an outflow which propagated to the N with new cells initiating on it. 20:23 another boundary can be seen 40 km at 210deg and is gone by 21:00. Mainly weak showers 60+ km to the SW and even further out to N NW. 23:18 some more intense echos develop around 80 km to SW with movement to the NE. At 23:53 the boundary is just N of the radar and of moderate strength. ~ 23:00 AP appearing again and gone by 04:50Z.
15:19Z last radar scan to come into AWDL. Radar operational again at 19:15. Cells locations at the time the radar came up were,40 km to the W NW and 20- 40 km to the S SW. Movement on these cells are to the NE. Outflow at 19:24 center 40 km 149deg moving east. Undetected boundary at 63km and 82deg at 19:24Z.
19:45 - cell 24 km 114 deg 45dB cell 23 km 200 deg 40 dB cell 36 km 319 deg 45 dB gust front centered at 38km 123 deg moving to E. 20:00 - More cells forming to NW, bdy continues. 20:30 - Bdy center 40 km 147 deg, main convection is to W & N 21:00 - Large area of cells 30 km NW of radar and a line of cells start to form to the E 20 km. 21:15 - Eastern line filling in more and an outflow being produced with center of 41km 134 deg. 21:45 - Line continues to fill in, size is 60-80km long oriented NE - SW. 23:00 - Line is weakening with average ref in the 25-35 dB area. Gust front starts to produce some small cells 25 km to the NW of the radar. Bdy movement continues to be NW.
First evening this week that we didnt get any AP.
First morning this week without AP.
17:13 - Radar went into storm mode. Strong southerly flow produces rolls but not much els.
1635 - Some isolated convection over the mtns to the W-SW 1832 - Cells over mtns. 55dB cell just NW of Boulder. Area of showers 90 km to SE. 2139 - Mtn convection increasing especially to the SW. 2209 - Convection wide spread 80-90km to SW. Area of weak to moderate convection around Boulder. 2237 - Large area of showers pushing out on plains just W of Denver. 2307 - Big area of precip to W-NW with a 50+ dB cell just to the NW of Denver, all moving to the N-NE. 2336 - Cells are stronger to the NW and located between LMT and FCL. 0006 - Convection to NW is now mainly N of FCL. Another large band over mtns. 0035 - Mtns now covered with precip. Destinct line of stronger cells 50+dB west of BLD oriented NW-SE. 0052 - Line now between BLD and LMT moving to NE. 0104 - Now between LMT and LVD, aread of 60 + dB west of Loveland. 0122 - 65+dB near FCL. Huge line along front range now moving off mtns. 0151 - Leading edge of this N-S line is now in DEN and extend 100km each way. 0234 - First sign of outflow over radar. Strong. 0308 - Outflow now 40 km E of radar, leading edge of line now just E of radar. 0337 - Clearing along foothills. Line now 30 km E of radar. Outflow still out ahead of the line. 0435 - line weakening rapidly 60 km E of radar. Strength of cells holding up better to the N-NE. 0452 - Gust front 80km E of radar. 0705 - Showers have mainly all disipated. Seeing some AP to the N.
0000-0700 - AP
0000 - AP till 0400 1539 - Weak bdy 60 km 160 deg mving to the W NW. (BDY1) 1747 - Begin to see a surge from the SE ~70km. Most noticable in velocity. 1926 - Small cell intiating just ahead of the SE bdy ~20km to the S of radar. 2005 - 2 cells 15km 130 deg and 20km 180 deg. Weak bdy moving W is still visible but has not produced anything. 2025 - Radar goes into storm mode. 2109 - SE bdy has become stationary. Cell ~48 dB is 30 km 45deg from radar. 2047 - (BDY2) 13km 355deg outflow from the cell just NE of the radar. Mvmt to the NW orientation is SW-NE. This cell also produces an outflow (BDY3) heading SE. Can see it around 2100Z, 20km E of radar.this is the strongest of the bdys today, at least in ref. 2133 - (BDY4) moving W centered at 47km 103deg. Weak! 2202 - bdy3 & 4 colliding 40 km 80deg from radar. 2237 - Cell develops on bdy 2 80km to NNE.
Mainly a scattered cu day.
0023 - AP. Filter turned on at 0139. 1650 - hint of bdy 80km S and 70-80Km to the SSW (BDY1). Surge similar to yesturday but more from the south. 1828 - First cell produced at sfc 45 km S of radar. Same as yesturday were cell seems to initiate ahead of the bdy. 1838 - bdy 1 center 45 km to the S. 1849 - Radar in storm mode. 1900 - Cell 50+ dB 30 kms to S.2 weaker cells 60-70 km to SSE. 1935 - 50+ dB cell at sfc. 30km to S. (BDY2) center 40km to WSW 260deg. outflow from cell to S. movement to W. (BDY3) centered at 50km S. of radar movement ESE. Cell motion to NNE. 2005 - cell 20km @ 300deg, 30km @ 190deg. Bdy 2 centered at 49km 260deg. Bdy 3 46km @ 176deg. Initiation continues on N. part of bdy. 2030 - new cell 35km @ 290 deg produced from bdy 2 on its north side. Cell 25km to S. is now showing a more easterly motion moving wiht bdy 3 which is now centered at 26km 160 deg. 2104 - Area 60 km to WNW is now larger in size but weaker in intensity. Southern cell is now 25km 150deg with ref in the 40-45 dB range with weaker echo extending N. up to 50km 360 deg. Bdy 2, modified now to the N, is centered at 44km 82deg. It has a strong velocity signature. 2132 - New cell off bdy 2 ~10km behind bdy. Location is 55km 51deg. Old long lived cell is now 27km 137deg still trailing 10km behind bdy2. Weak to moderate cells 10-40km N of Boulder. 2201 - Cell persists, now strongest core is 30km 125deg, 58dB. Wide area some 50km long oriented NE-SW and all within 20km of bdy2 which is now centered at 47km 124deg. 2231 - line is still building. Extends from 36km 146deg to 100km 48deg with just a couple of holes. Bdy 2 still can be seen at 57km 112deg. 2300 - 55dB cell 45km 105deg and 55dB 69km 70deg. Line has broken apart now. Bdy 2 has a SE moving segment centered at 59km 120deg (25km to NE and SW of that location) and a segment moving slowly to N with center at 47km 185deg. This segment went basically stationary around 2100. 0039 - AP 0212 - Line of convection over foothills 0300 - Large area of activity E & N of Greely 0349 - (BDY4) Moving W centered at 40km 100deg. 0430 - Bdy 4 now over radar, oreintation NW-SE. Did produce some convection 40 km to the N. 0447 - (Bdy 5) 50km 190deg moving to SE
2000 - Cells forming over mtns 70km WNW. 2053 - Cell on palmer ridge 80km to SSW. Area 70km WNW continues with no movement. 2122 - 80km to SSW cell near 60 dB. Nothing seems to want to come off the foothills. Mtn cells from west of Boulder up to Ft. Collins. 2154 - WNW Mtn cells died trying to move onto plains. Cell on Palmer ridge has weakend some but also has a larger sfc area. 2156 - Radar down. 2253 - Radar back up. Line of convection 80km 200deg up to 20km 200deg. Hot spot 40km to SSW ~60 dB. Seperate cells from line at 90km 180deg ~55 dB. Cell motions are NNE along line and E off the Palmer ridge. 2249 - Cell seems to be back building to the west. Line of cells still in the same general area 90km 220deg - 20km 60deg. Weak scattered cells all over in the SE quadrant. 0053 - Line weaker. Hot spots close to 50 dB with much less sfc area. 0152 - Scattered small cells to SW and S. 55 dB cell just E of Ft. Collins 0250 - Cell over Greely and 20 km to N and S of greely. 0355 - All activity is 60+ km away from the radar and to the NNE, NNW and SSW. 0406 - Gust front (BDY1) 40 km 110deg. moving to the S. By 0534 interacting with cells in SE quad and triggers more wide spread convection which moves off to ENE. 0806 - Wide area (SFC) from E to S of 30 dB or less echo.
1000 - Clear air return decreasing. 1800 - Cell near Nederland. Clouds today are very similar to yesturday where the cu over the foothills stream out along front range. Sounding had no cape. 1900 - Few scattered cells on mtns. 2007 - Convection increasing over mtns 70km to WSW. 2105 - Cells make it out on plains 50 km 240deg through 80km 225deg. 2134 - ~60 dB cell 70 km to SW. Hint of a bdy 75km to NE (BDY1) 2209 - Convection continure to the SSE. Bdy 1 now 60km to NE. (BDY2) coming from the SW cant see this in the 500m data. Interesting thing about today is that the cells are initiating ~10km out ahead of the bdys. Cell motions are to the E. Majority of convection has been to the south of the radar. 2321 - BDY 1 20km 30deg, orientation NW-SE. Bdy 2 19km 30deg orientation NW- SE. BDY 3 80km 120deg interecting bdy1 to N with an orientation of NE-SW. BDY 4 70km to the N. interecting bdy 1 with an orientation of E-W. There is new convection near this intersection. 2327 - BDY 1 & 2 collide ~20 km to NE. 2331 - last satellite image. 0001 - Bdy 4 has a line of cells on its Eastern half. Bdy 3 is gone now, lost in the large area of precip to the SE. Entire SE quad is covered with cells. Bdy 4 S. most location is 50km 330 deg. Bdy 1 just NE of radar and intersecting bdy 4 at 50km 330deg. Cells on bdy 4 are ~20km E. of intersection. 0122 - Staring to see som AP, filtered out at 0922. 0220 - Still a wide spread area of precip to E. Line of cells moving off foothills northern point 60km 310 down to 50km 240deg. 0324 - Cells weakened as they came off onto the plains. 0423 - Just light showers remain. 0922 - ~ 40 dB cell 90 km to NNE. 0939 - Gust front from the NE cells. Movement is to SW and its center location is 50km 45deg. 1038 - NNE convection still active. Looks to be a gust front at 25km to NE but hard to see in CIDD.
1709 - Few cells over mtns. 1837 - Wide spread convection over mtns. 1953 - Scattered cells now on the plains. Movement to ESE. 2005 - Gust front (BDY 2) 50 km 45deg. 2109 - Large cell near greely and an area 10 km S of radar extending in a line to the south. Cell on the Eastern side of bdy 2 90 km to E. 2237 - Areas of convection 60 + km to the NE and SE. Small cell near Denver. 2335 - Some weak cells N. of Brighton. Strongest activity is 100km to NE. 0039 - Mainly weak showers around plains. 0110 - AP to the N. 0345 - Clear air improving. 0637 - AP gone.
1000 - Clear air greatly decreased. 1600 - Clear air improving again. 2308 - cell just west of Boulder. 0053 - Cell over Estes Park 0105 - some AP. 0122 - Line of cells from just S. of Loveland extending to just S. of Estes park. center 80km 345deg. 0221 - area of 45 dB echo over Longmont. 0324 - Weak convective showers remain. 0900 - AP gone.
0934 - Clear air staring to decrease. 1600 - clear air much improved. 1700 - Small cu over the foothills. 1800 - Sounding launched in a roll, based on ascent rate and low level moisture. 2200 - Cells form over mtns between loveland and longmont, never make it off the hills. See waves around this time that are perpendicular to the flow. Migfa detects these features off and on.
0033 - Last radar image 1550 - Radar data back 1905 - Radar goes into storm mode. 1911 - Small weak cells to NW 80km. Waves in the flow much like yesturday. 2034 - Cell 100km to SW and 100km to NW 2103 - bdy1 25km 325deg. 2213 - bdy2 60km 283deg. from cell over foothills. 2226 - BDY2 50km 227deg moving to ESE. 2242 - BDY2 33km 280deg BDY3 54km 190deg moving to NE BDY4 56km 29deg moving to SSE. Cells forming on the Eastern edge of the bdy ~70km out. 2311 - BDY2 13km 248deg intersecting both bdys 3&4. BDY3 50km 56deg BDY4 47km 184deg 0001 - Cells behind bdys start to intensify. Close to 50 dB just over the radar out to 40 km 0037 - Bdy intersection point 51km 125deg. 52dB cell 27 km 122deg. Everything else is very weak. 0105 - Appox. start time of AP. 0253 - AP gets filtered out. 0520 - Cold front boudary 70km 25deg. 0537 - Looks like a double boundary. One at 47km 21deg and the other at 56km 23deg.
Great day for boudaries but very stable and most of the cells are very weak especially within 60 km of the radar. 25-30 dB range.
1722 - Radar down. 1902 - First satellite image. 2046 - Getting radar data again. Radar was up much sooner than this but we did not recieve the data until our link was restarted. 55 dB cells ` over mtns and palmer ridge. Weak showers on plains. Day has been overcast. There was a large cap in sounding around 700mb. 2100 - No satellite image at this time. 2141 - Large precip area which is all to the West of the radar. More intense cells are making it on the plains. ~40-45 dB. 2210 - Strong westerly push just ahead of precip now just east of radar. NW & SW quads covered in precip. Cells on plains are maxing out around 45 dB. 2320 - Precip 100+ km to NNE and 100+ km to the SSW. Most intense cells are 20km to N of radar and around the Palmer ridge. 0018 - Wide spread precip continues . Line of strongest Ref are ~25 km to the East of the radar. Cell motion is East. 0111 - Line of strongest ref 55km to ESE. 0245 - Whole eastern quadrants covered in precip. New stuff developing near Ft. Collins and Greely. 0343 - 50-55 dB cell near Loveland (80km to NW) 0444 - Area to NW continues to move to the SE and weakens. Ref 35-40 dB.
1430 - Area of moderate cells over foothills 90km to NW. 2053 - Day has been filled with weak showers on plains. Movement is East. Everthing dies as it comes off the mtns.
0300 - AP visible 0330 - Clear air improving 0540 - AP gone by this time.
0330 - Small area of weak AP. 0421 - AP gone by this time.
0116 - AP 0447 - AP gone by this time. 2020 - 45-50 dB cell 70km 330deg and 70km 310 deg. 2049 - 45-50 dB line of cells extending from Longmont to Ft. Collins. cell ~55 dB 50 km W. of radar 2125 - Line moved ~15km to East. 2205 - Possible bdy 1 10 km E of radar. 2211 - Most of line is < 45 dB now. ~60 dB cell 40 km 30deg. 2240 - Most of the activity is in NE Quad and < 50 dB. 2252 - Bdy1 45km to ESE moving to SE. 2300 - cell 60 km 65deg. 60+ dB. 2316 - AP to the N. 2321 - Line of cells 55+ dB forming on northern half of bdy1 and extending out from cell to NE 65 KM. Mid point of Bdy1 60km to ESE. 2345 - BDY2 35km to South. 2351 - 45+ dB cell 45 km W moving to E. 0043 - BDY2 60km 150deg. 0055 - AP gone by this time.
0253 - Last data on Cidd display.
No NEXRAD or mesonet data was available today. Consequently, there were no autonowcasts or MIGFA detections today. The Denver NEXRAD was operating but we were unable to get the data. Will wait until tomorrow when approriate personnel returns to deal with the problem. The mesonet server was restarted but we were still unable to get data because it was down at the source.
Lack of data was not a big deal today because convection did not occur due to a ridge building aloft and warming of mid-level temperatures.
The capability now exists to automatically save images of current autonowcasts and display them on the World Wide Web.
Today we got NEXRAD and mesonet data back online.
We have very stable conditions today. No storms or boundaries, just a few cu over the mtns. So again, unable to test the algorithms (this time due only to lack of data).
The model is producing 1 hr. forecasts every 30 min. Forecasts of lifted index and CIN are now available and work is currently underway to add them to the autonowcaster.
1551 - Data coming into AWDL again. 1953 - Some roll structure. Just small cu on the foothills today. 2300 - Approx time radar is unavailable. 2349 - Radar back.
0054 - Appox. begin time of AP. 0200 - Appox time AP gone. Looks to have been filtered out.
0019 - BDY1, 30km 300 deg. Moving to SE. 0054 - AP begin time. 0106 - BDY1, 15km 300 deg. 0200 - BDY1 no longer visible. 0336 - Extreme AP time. 0400 - AP gone. 1900 - Roll structure
0055 - BDY1, 30km 285 deg, moving to W. 0100 - Appox. AP begin time. 0200 - BDY1, 50km 285 deg. 0450 - AP gone. 1832 - BDY2, 40km to WSW, moving to ESE. BDY3, stationary located from 80km to NE to 25km E of radar. 2019 - BDY4, 65km to NW. Cells over Mtns. 2037 - Small weak cell on BDY3, 55km to NE. 2106 - Cell 50 km NW has intensified to 58 dB. 2130 - AP 2153 - BDY4, 40 km to NW. Cell at sfc much larger with max ref 60 dB. More small cells forming on the stationary bdy (3). 2205 - Cell initiating on BDY4. More cells on BDY3. BDY3 is now being modified by cells and moving to NW. 2336 - BDY5, 20km to SSW. 60 dB cell 25km to E. Weaker cell to N-NE 20 - 60 km. 0005 - Convection 20-60 km to E. BDY5 ~25km to S. Movement has been SSE. AP to North. 0324 - AP gone. May have been filtered out.
Today was a interesting weather day. The thunderstorms were relatively small and "scattered". They initiated along both moving boundaries and collision zones. The atmospheric boundary layer was hot and dry (mixing ratio between 5 and 6) so lots of boundaries and a lot of lift required to produce storms. Today's weather was well behaved from a boundary-layer rule stand point.
After about 20:30 today, there were NO glitches in the software. The system worked smoothly. Available was MIGFA, TITAN, Model output, Satellite-cloud type, and nowcaster (running both in fuzzy mode and fuzzy if-then rule modes).
However, the automated nowcast products were not as well behaved. In general the biggest problems were (1) poor MIGFA detections, (2) poor sfc and model convergence fields and (3) poor methods for dealing with cu and cu-congestus.
Many forecast were poor because of missed detections by MIGFA. A strong influential boundary moved off the mountains (strong westerly flow) that was never detected by MIGFA. Other moving boundaries that MIGFA should detect were not caught. Interestingly near the end of the day, when most of the clear air was gone the MIGFA detections improved.
The surface convergence fields and the model convergence fields were useful at times. Because of lack of data on the eastern edge of the network, the convergence from the surface network was not always accurate. The model was having trouble as well due to difference in terrain between the RUC (that is being used for initialization) and the model.. The problems is being fixed.
The forecast would have been better if human boundaries were used. Currently, it is not easy to verify the forecast (i.e. compare forecast field with verification reflectivity), once this is possible alot of insight could be gained about the nowcast from review of this day.
1830 - Good cu field over mountains. 18Z sounding had a fair amount of cape. Winds aloft are light. 1838 - Migfa starts to issue detections of boundaries which are linear, extend along a radial, and have large motion vectors. This continues until 20:26. The problem seems to stem from the problem with the NEXRAD data coming in here. The tape the data was being written too was full and causing errors. This gave us data with missing beams and that is what migfa was detecting as boundaries. 1900 - 1900 to 20:15 or so, radar data is spoked... 1934 - Moderate cells on Palmer ridge. 1956 - BDY1 55km to SSW. Outflow from cells on Palmer ridge. 2031 - Begin to see a cell develop (at sfc) on bdy1 45km to S. 2045 - MIGFA boundaries flaky 2100 - MIGFA detections.... 2106 - BDY1 now 25km to S. ~5km behind bdy1 is a 45-50 dB cell. 55 dB cell on Palmer ridge. Migfa has been doing a good job with bdy1 so far. Mobile class started taking pictures at this time. The sounding taken at this time showed a lot less cape than the earlier one. The EL was at ~320mb. BDY2 N-S orientation, moving to E 41km 151 deg. 2113 - BDY3 moving E 70km 161deg. 2130 - New development on intersection of bdy 1&2, 27km to SE. Strong westerlies in Boulder. This boundary (BDY4) looks to be ~40 km to WNW. Weak cell 20km to NW. 2141 - Migfa totally missing strong westerly flow off the mountains. Good moving boundary. The boundary coming up from the north is detected well. However the first guess nowcast boxes are in the wrong location. I think there is a difficulty because of the curvature of the boundary. nowcast are highly weighted to large thunderstorms. Difficult to define convergence zone where convection is most likely to happen because of missed MIGFA detection. Would it be useful to be able to detect radar cu at one height and cu_congestus at another higher height? 2156 - The first guess boxes are good for the MIGFA detections that are available. Sorry to say MIGFA has not been able to pick up the largest boundary off the mountain. Another microburst boundary has come out and is doing well but the boundary is not being detected by MIGFA. Very disappointing because the boundaries are moving. Don't understand MIGFA's problems. Collision regions are not being forecast for because of these missed detections. Difficult to get good cells aloft. should be looking both for weak cell cu and cu_congestus at different heights. Currently they are at the same height. MODEL is still having problems with large scale convergence over the mountains due to terrain mismatch between RUC and model. Picking up some of the surface convergence. It sure would be nice to be able to view a verification field for the auto-nowcaster. The auto-nowcast min-max does not have a final view. Need to be sure to time stamp the min-max field as well as the cumulative fields to allow display at both issue and verification time. What is the surface convergence field? Does it exist. It appears that only the model convergence is getting into the algorithm. It would be nice to keep the surface convergence in at times that the model is having difficulties. Still having trouble with the first guess box.... 2159 - BDY1 extending E-W out from Radar. 45-50 dB cell 30km 120deg. BDY3 70km to SE. There are a lot of bdys out there but very hard to sell them on Cidd dispaly. BDY4 ~30km to WNW of radar. 2220 - forecast still plagued with the fact that we are not getting good initial boxes either from MIGFA detection, sfc. convergence field is just way off regarding where the strongest convergence is because we are in the eastern region were there are not enough stations. Model convergence field is not doing well either... trec is doing reasonably well... 2234 - Cells 20-30km to E of radar are modifying bdy1. It appears to be a circular bdy now, all of which is with-in 60 km of the radar. BDY4 now 5km from radar. BDY3 still visible but out of range. Max ref on cells to the East is 55dB, 40km 120deg. 2241 - MIGFA boundarys are good... for a change... This would be an interesting time for verification. 2246 - Roll or stationary bdy (5) 70km to ESE is inhances and develops a couple of cells as bdy 1 approaches. Intersection of BDY1 and BDY 4 (to North) producing fairly vigerous cell, 55+ dB. 2257 - Collision of bdy1&5 70km to ESE, cells intensify. Cell that formed on intersection of BDY1&4 is now 60 dB. BDY6 mving to NW, 30km 330 deg. BDY1 55km to NE and 45 km TO SE. 2338 - N and E part of BDY1 70 + km out. Cell 40km to NE now below 45 dB. BDY 1's southern part connected to BDY5 to form one large bdy, moving to NW. Eastward moving section of BDY1 only bdy with convection on it, and this is weak. 0001 - Boundaries still out there but very little in the form of convection.
Today was not a very interesting weather day. The morning and noon soundings today showed quite a bit of drying with dewpoints about 5-8 deg. cooler today between 800 and 525 mb. There was also a fairly strong cap at 500 mb. Therefore, haven't been able to get any convections going today.
Yesterday IR data was not being served because the libraries on Solaris were switched. Today the servers were restarted VIS was also lost. Libraries wer recompiled and things have been running smoothly since.0054 - Appox. start of AP. 0240 - No more boundaries. 0321 - AP gone. 0419 - BDY1, ~40km to NE, moving to SW.
Another day of hot and dry conditions. Therefore, unable to look at the nowcasters performance.
Still working on the problem with the model initialization. A playback version of the nowcaster has been installed (but currently only one person can do playback at a time). The only difference between the playback and real-time is that the playback version pulls in the AN fields from the server associated with the playback version of the nowcaster.
0019 - Appox AP start time. 0443 - AP gone. 2130 - Noticed this same feature last couple of days. Along southern mtns. ref inhances for a couple of hours. Looks like clutter or AP. On this day it was gone aroung 00Z.
Another day with weather!!! We had several boundaries initiate storms today. This should be a great CI case for playback.
The nowcaster had a difficult time performing in real-time today. For some reason, that has yet to be determined, it kept using up all the CPU and eventually crashing. There is alsoa problem with the server mapper but fortunately this won't affect our operations unless the product server goes down and it's been very stable for the past couple of days. The Denver NEXRAD radar went down twice. Once for 30 minutes and once for 20 minutes. Not quite sure what the problem was?
We can now run the nowcaster in playback mode on previous RAPS95 cases. The playback version seems to be working fine with the exception of probelms associated with displaying the products from the past time. Looks to be a simple bug that should be fixed soon.
0015 - Appox AP start time. 0413 - AP gone. 1752 - radar goes into storm mode. 1800 - Area of convection 100km to WNW, west of Boulder. Fairly thick convective clouds over foothills. NW flow, strong clear air return, rolls. 1900 - Convection increasing over mtns. 2000 - Convection continues to build over mtns. Sounding show little cape and fairly high cin. 2029 - Radar down. 2107 - Radar data back. 2114 - Cu field on plains best its been for some time although convection is supressed. 2120 - BDY1, 50km to W, moving East. Later reported to be cold front. 2200 - 40 db cell on bdy 1, location 50 km 250 deg. 2217 - 50 + db cell 30km 300 deg on bdy1. BDY1 location, 34km 264deg. 2247 - Cell now 60 dB, 37 km 308deg. Cell motions are Notherly. BDY1 has an orientation of NE-SW. The 5km winds are from the SSW at 15 kts. 2305 - BDY2, 60km to ESE. BDY1 20km to WNW. Convection continues to initiate on this boundary. 2333 - Weak to mod. cells on bdy2. These cells stay small and mod until bdy1 collides with bdy2. Still good development ~10 km behind bdy1. 60 db max ref on these cells. 2357 - BDY1 no longer initiating cells and it is leaving old convection behind. Has the anvil cooled area to much and caused convection to slow down? Still a few weak cells on bdy2. BDY2, 35 km to ESE BDY1, 5km to w of radar, extending 60+km NE and SW. Ref of bdy 13dB. 0021 - Cell forms on intersection of roll and bdy1. Location 42km 26 deg. First new develop. on bdy 1 for shot while. 0032 - BDY1 and BDY2 collide 20km to ESE. 0038 - Weak cell that has been on BDY2 inhances with collision, 25 km to E. Radar goes down. 0059 - Radar back. BDY12 32 km to SE. # cells 20km behind it now. cell 1, 60+ dB 34 km 200 deg. cell 2, 45 dB 14km 170 deg. cell 3, 60 dB 21 dm 50 deg. 0106 - BDY3, 60 km to SSE. Outflow from cells to S. 0117 - Collision of BDY12 and BDY3 50 km to S. No new convection. 0124 - Cells behind bdy 1 close to 40 km back appear to be weakening slowly. Most vigorous cell is on Northern part of BDY1, 80 km to NE. 60 dB up to 14,000ft. 0205 - BDY1 over 60km to SE. AP mixed in to the north. 0407 - Everthing continues to move north, over 40 km from radar now. 0700 - AP gone.
Today was wet. Development was pretty "soupy" with large regions of weak to moderate precipitation moving over the area. The best part was the initiation that occured early. The first storms formed along the Palmer divide. The model picked up a weak SW to NE convergence zone (that was difficult to pick up from radar signatures and would never have been caught by an algorithm). The zone was real and one of the storms off the Palmer divide moved off onto the convergence zone and stayed together for 3 hours. At times it had pretty nice structure. The other storm from the divide moved off and put out a nice outflow that was able to sustain it with the majority of the new growth on the NW flank. The NW growth does not agree with the optimal direction for boundary movement to initiate storm rules. Later on major soup began to move off the mountains. This was a day when the rule of weak stuff moving over a boundary and intensiving would work. Westerly surge cleared out convection.
The software worked reasonably well. The major problem seems to be with the nowcaster hanging. The problem was worked on through out the day, And thanks to frequent restarts we operated through out the afternoon.
The major problems in the quality of the nowcast continues to be the inability to automatically detect surface boundaries and convergence.
1700 - Data problems. Radar not coming in due to a local problem. 1830 - Radar data coming in again. Cu field extensive today. Today is already looking like a good weather day. Development along the front range (on the plains) is active with towering cu shearing off to the West. Surface winds are north westerly with mixing ratios of 9 to 11. Temperatures are cool (in low 20s). Storms are moving from SW to NE at ~20 km/ 30 min. Therefore a boundary moving out of the SW should do well today because of opposing northerly flow at surface and SW steering flow. There is virtually no shear and lots of water, so expect rain and little rotation. 1840 - Light rain at Foothills lab. Development beginnning to the east presumably on a relatively weak convergence zone between strong north - northeasterly flow along the front range and light northerly flow further to the east. MIGFA could not be expected to pick up the boundary. Currently there are no forecast. I am going to ofrecast a cu_congestus field that extends from 7-8 km msl and has 30-50 dbz associated with it to my forecast parameters. 1900 - Development along the Palmer divide. this is good, because if the development is strong enough to initiate a decent outflow, it will be moving in a favorable direction for initiation. Boundary still *very* week. However, very week development (cu congestus at best). Lots of cu on the satellite, should be a good day for truthing. The model is picking up the weak convergence zone that mentioned before. Interesting because MIGFA is not, the boundary is very very weak and is more like a zone. The cell that is currently on the divide should move over this convergence zone and continue to develop. I think the nowcast rules are set up to support this... not sure. Convection over mtns to SW. Cell on palmer ridge, 75 km to S. 1930 - Radar data is down. 1945 - Radar is back up and cell is developing along the convergence zone, other cells look like they are going up. Nowcast picks up development pretty well due to model convergence, MIGFA is still not showing boundary. 2000 - Development still on divide increasing, showind good structure with new storms on west and northern side. I am not near a CID display so I can't speadk to the nowcast, but if it is getting anything it is due to a combination of model convergence and cu field. Weak convergence zone ~40 km SE of radar. Cell on Palmer has stong convergence. Ref 55-60 dB. Mountain convection is wide spread but only moderate in intensity. 2015 - Cell continues to develop slowly. We have remarked at how UN-explosive the development that is associated with the storm is.. sigh... Anyway, there is strong convergence into the cell it will probably move off the divid during the next 30 minutes and should be able to maintain itself. 2032 - Migfa detection of convergence in cell on palmer. Detection time is given as end of cartesian volume therefore does not match up well on radial data. 2045 - The storms on the divid and so. foothils are moving off, there is convergence and the nowcast are for the cells to do quite well. Infact that was the nowcast 30 minutes ago and things look good. Development along the convergence zone is still forming. The cell that I have discussed during several time periods is very nice. Strong convergence into the cell at the surface, rotation aloft. It will do good. Storms are also coming off near boulder. They have produced there own gust front (that MIGFA has not picked, therefore the nowcaster is not forecasting for this region. I think that these cells have a good chnace. Somehow we need to think of ways to work persistence into the algorithm (i.e. boundaries have been active although slow to develop today. the nowcaster should be able to learn to expect active boundaries with slow developing storms. 2100 - Lots of soup has come off the mountains. Same two storms that have been going for a while (to the south forming on convergence zones) continue to crank along. It is interesting that two cells that started at approxiametly the same location have grown in different dirrections. The storm to the south east continues to have strong surface convergence and rotation. Nowcast are still very hard to evaluate because we can't look at forecast and valid field togehter. However, there is a nice gust front moving out of one of these cells that is intitiating (slightly in front of the boundary) that should be giving us boundary (but is not) and good nowcast. The surge with the cells over GBoulder is also well off the mountains and MGIFA sin't picking it up either. 2101 - BDY1, 30 km to SW. No thin line with this but migfa does a good job of detecting it. Movement is to NNW. 2107 - BDY2, 15 km W of radar. Good westerly push with on thin line. Migfa is now detecting this bdy. BDY3, 50km NE, moving E. No initation with this bdy. 2110 - MIGFA has now picked up both the boundary off the mountain and the gust front. This is good perhpas we will be able to forecast for the collision between thesse two boundaries. The forecast should be for convection although heating maybe a problem because the collistion is in the areqa of soup that came off the mountiains earilier. 2119 - BDY4, another vel. feature 40 km to W. BDY1 17km to SW. BDY2 11 km to WNW. Lose radar after this time. 2130 - Nowcaster hung. Known problem that is being looked into. Nowcaster back up. Not impressed by the first-guess boxes or boundary locations, but as amazing as it maybe the forecast area is good. I am considering putting a really big ramp on the first guess box. The westerlies should cut off convection as they move thorough. The nowcaster is working. The cell to the south east continues to develop. It still looks very nice. 2134 - Radar back. 65 dB cell 55km to SE. Been going since ~1900. This is the cell that initiated on Palmer ridge. 2147 - BDY4, 45km to NNW. Migfa now detecting this bdy.BDY1 and BDY2 now one detection by migfa, 180deg arc. 2152 - Bdy detection 55km to NE. Why? Cell motions are NE. 2200 - Lots of rain... Mass of convection to the very north (over Cheyenne divide) probably has good nowcast due to extrapolation of large storms. There is development near the radar in the area of the collision. There is soup all over the place. The best development is to the SE. The cells to the SE are not in soup and maybe popping on rolls, they are far enough out that it is impossible to see boundaries (80 to 120 km). 2215 - Still have lots of rain. The westerlies that are slowly moving thorough the area will eventually wipe out convection. The cell to the south east (there are several now but this is the one that has been around for several hours (!) is begining to develop again (it had begun to look as if it was going down hill). I don't have easy access to a CIDD display so it is impossible to evaluate forecast. MIGFA is having trouble but it is not surprising because most of the boundaries are at the edges of this soup stuff. They are real, just not easily detected with reflectivity.. shear has to be used in the algorihtm. 2218 - BDY5, 12 km NE of radar, moving to NE. Good detecion by MIGFA. 2224 - Cell that originated on Palmer around 1900 Z is still active. Located now at 65km to ESE with ref of 60 dB. 2300 - Soup continues. The best forecast at this point is probably extrapolation. Summary: Most of the boundarys today didnt have a fine line assosiated with them. Sounding was quite moist but had only slight instability. There was wide spread precip, the majority of which was only moderate in intensity. The most vigorous stuff was to the SE, 80 km or so. Good day as far as operations. Everything was working good. End of day started getting products from CLD to display on cidd.
0200 - Appox. start of AP. 0330 - Appox. time AP filtered out.
0013 - 60 dB cell 100km to NW, moving to SE. 0112 - cell 80 km to NW still ~ 60 dB. 0145 - AP begins to N. 0216 - Cell 50 km to NW. Titan doing a good job extroplating cell. 0245 - New cell 60 km to W. 0314 - Cell over DIA, 15km to NW. Cell to west intensifies to over 60 dB, 50 km to the west. Another 40 dB cell 55km to SW. 0343 - AP filtered out. 0413 - Two cells to the west merge, 35 km to SW. 0442 - All three cells have now merged to S. Max ref 50 - 55 dB. 0530 - Strongest area of convection is to the SSW 35km. _~ 50 dB. 0627 - Max ref 55 dB, 50 km to S. 0731 - Weak small area left 80km to SSE. 1101 - BDY 70km to NW, moving to SE. 1200 - Strong clear air return. 1300 - BDY over radar, ~10km to S. Can almost see double bdy sturcture. Could this be a cold front. 1357 - Bdy 55 km to SSE. 2202 - Good rolls at this time. 2300 - Rolls still look nice.
There was no sounding today due to problems with our phone line connection at the NWS and problems with the cellure phone power supply.
We had no radar data from 2030 - 2300 today. NEXRAD was actually down for awhile and when it came back we never received the data. Apparently, when NEXRAD went down we started up some processes on our machine at the NWS trying to get the data back. Unfortunately, the processes were started up as awpg instead of awdl so we then had two of each process running (one as awdl and one as awpg) which was trying to send back too much data and overloading our system. We had a lot of problems with MIGFA crashing yesterday once the radar returned @ 2300. The problem was due to the disk being full.
Before the radar went down we had a nice DCZ; however, we missed initial development along the line. Once we were back on line, a nice collision produced good development. This will be a good case for playback (once we get all the level 2 archive data).
Nowcaster worked well but still limited because of poor first guess box locations. We also need to work on better ways to detect cumulus clouds and subsequent vertical growth (which continues to be problematic).
0028 - Clear air deminishing. 0200 - AP start time. 0300 - Between 0230 and 0300 cells pop up to S & SW of radar. ~40 km to SW and 60 km to SSE. 0400 - large weak area of precip to SW. 0427 - Cells organizing in a line 45 km to SSW, moving to NNE and intensifying. 0532 - Line 20 km to SW of radar. Some 65 dB ref in this line. 0627 - Line has broken down, 1 cell 65+ dB, 10km to ENE. 0800 - New development 90km to NW 1327 - AP gone. 1500 _ There is a N-S boundary that is associated with some synoptic scale feature (I think - I haven't looked for it on maps), it is not a true DCZ in that the flow on the Eastern side is SSW at 8-9m/s and the flow on western side is week northerly. MIGFA (&CLD) is not picking the boundary up, however, TREC is doing a good job. Discussions with Zhonqi suggest that the only way for a MIGFA type algorithm to pick up boundary is thorough the use of TREC or surface mesonet field. This is because there is not a fine line and the actual shear across the boundary is quite weak (although clearly there). 1600 - Thin line extending from radar out to 60 km to SW. Slowly moving to the SE. 1700 - Should be a good day, N-S boundary still there. It is slowly moving east (20 km per hour) and is now visible both in velocity and reflectivity. The SW flow (on Eastern side) has turned to SSW. If SW increase we will be dead in the water, however I don't expect that to happen. The NS boundary is probably a weak cold frontal development associated with synoptic scale flow, it is a couple of degrees cooler (22-23 verses 26-27) in back of boundary with no moisture discontinuity (mixing ratios holding at 10-12). (Andrew points out (later) that cold fronts don't usually enter area in this location and that perhaps it is an effect of the flow 1800 - Unable to get sounding in realtime because of phone line problems. As SW flow has turned to So over the last 1.5 hours a true Denver convergence zone has formed. AT 17:00 a fine line began to form along the 210 degree radial. This fine line was not connected with the N-S boundary (as noted above), in fact it was the first indication of the formation of a Denver Convergence zone. The DCZ has increased in intensity and definition as the original N-S boundary has merged with the DCZ. The thin line is thickening with time. The boundary detections from MIGFA (&CLD) is having trouble because of the radial nature of the zone. 1830 - Finally got satellite data. The zone is still there, no clouds have formed on it. Only vertical development still back in mountains. Did not get sounding data in due to problems with transmission the sounding is good and we will be able to get it at a latter time. 1930 - The DCZ is still there, no development along the boundary. Storm development to the west of the boundary in the mnts. Storms doing well on mtns, expect them to move out over the DCZ pretty soon and with good development. The model is doing a good job of picking up the forecast convergence, CAPE and CIN fields look good. 2000 - Cells 80km to SW. 2030 - lose radar. Continue to play the waiting game with the DCZ. It is stronger now and continues to have classic features. The clear air looks like it is rotating around the radar. TREC is doing well. Another enhanced reflectivity boundary has developed to the north of the radar. It too is associated with the DCZ. Storms on mtns continue to develop although nothing has come off. MIGFA has not been doing well. There haven't been any nowcast. 2145 - Radar is still down ... There are tornado warnings out on storms developing to our NE. The NIDS products that are available on Mosaic show nice velocity couplets with these storms. Also, there are a few storms developing on DCZ. These storms look nice visually. However, they are sporatically spaced in the nowcast region. However, I am very frustrated. We will want to get level 2 data from the weather service! We are missing a very nice event! 2300 - Radar back. BDY 1, 65km to NW, moving to SE. BDY2, 60km to NNW at one point to 30km WNW at the other end point. Large cell 35km N of radar, 55 dB and showing very little motion. 65 dB cell 90 km to NNW on BDY2. Another cell 85 km to NNE. Motion of cells to the North is South. 2322 - BDY3, 80km to NW, moving to SE 2330 - Forecast for collision difficult because of poor boundary detections. There is some surface convergence which may trigger nowcast. 2334 - Collision of BDY12&3, 70km 345deg. New growth along this collision. Good shear in these new cells. 2345 - Collision is occurring .. great velocity signature - Couplets at surface, vertical development aloft. Looks good! 2351 - Collision of bdys continue, 55km 330 deg. 2355 - Issued nowcast with truth boundaries instead of MIGFA boundaries. Difficult to understand nowcast. It appears that it may not be picking up reflectivity field for radar cu and cu congestus. We may need to be able to grow the cu field to cover more area. This is a frustrating forecast because the rules should work but because the algorithm doesn't know about collisions and because the cloud mass in front of the collision is not great, we are not producing good nowcast. 0005 - Line continues to build back to the SW side, near where collision is still taking place. 0015 - AP to the N. 0020 - Development along the collision zone is slower to form. The convergence zone is strong and continues, development aloft is weak. Expect few small cells. Auto-nowcast maybe good at this time due to surface convergence fields and cells forming aloft. I am judging this from min-max rules with a low threshold (not the "official" ploygon that is being used based on fuzzy stuff). Changes are being made to allow the forecast to be directly compared to the verification. This will greatly help. 0028 - BDY collision complete, one bdy moving to SE. location is 30km to NW. No new growth to the SW since 0Z. 55+ dB core 55km to N of radar. This convection extends 100+ km to NE. 0040 - New cells forming on BDY now, SW side, 30km to NW of radar. 0052 - Line fills in to SW. 30km 285deg through 30km 330deg is all new growth in past 15 min. 0100 - Convection associated with the collision has reached it's max (this is a forecast). Development should be slowing based on cells aloft. Collision boundary is moving to the SE. Boundary is moving thorough area that has not been rained on earlier today. It is late, however the convergence is strong, the wind shear isn't bad (the upper level winds would be roughly parallel to the boundary), and the boundary is currently active. I would forecast that it will continue to be active. MIGFA is down, so the auto-mated forecast will rely on surface convergence and radar_cu, it will be interesting to see how it does. 0109 - Lin of cells just to the NW edge of DIA. Ref 40-50 dB. Gust front ~10 km to NW extending 60 km to NE and to SW. BEst core is 85km to NE. Cell motions are to the SE. 0130 - Development with the line continues although it is weak. I am going to give it up for the evening although there maybe some good stuff for review. 0138 - Majority of convection on SW part of BDY has fallen apart. Stong cells continue 40+ km to NE. BDY 5km SE of radar. 0223 - BDY 20 km to SE. Gettin harder to see. Convection dead to the west. To east 55 dBcells 75km 75deg. 0339 - AP gone. Just a hint of BDY 70km 135deg. 55 dB cells 85km 105deg.
This day started out with high hopes and ended with cold temperatures, mid-level clouds and disappointment. We had strong convergence boundaries that just couldn't produce because of cold temperatures. The few cells that did form were short lived, small, and weak (max dBZ of 45).
Good news -- we received a class sounding from the NWS site today. The sounding crew replaced the connectors at the NWS (which had shorted out) and things are working fine. As for the problem with the cellure phone's power supply Jeff Cole is looking into it for us. So, we are unable to receive soundings from sites other than the NWS until the power supply is fixed or replaced. Just FYI we are releasing the sounding at 1700, instead of 1800, until further notice.
MIGFA was up and running consistently today. The problem yesterday was due to the disk that MIGFA writes to being full. The disk space was cleared up this morning and things are back to normal.
Auto-nowcasts from the combined fuzzy weights were not good at all today. The nowcaster is having problems grabbing the model forecasted mli field correctly. The way things are set up now we try to use the model forecasted mli if it exists and if not then we use the sfc mli. For some reason, that has yet to be determined, when the forecasted mli field was used the nowcaster thought the field was empty.
1650 - 80 X 20km area of strong clear air return just S of radar. Orientation NE-SW. 1730 - Today's weather contains a DCZ, lots of moisture, and very weak steering flow. Hail and/or flooding are quite likely. High temperatures will be in upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Moisture extends all the way up and gives positive Cape (<1000). Needless to say it will be an interesting day. The DCZ is weaker than it was this time yesterday but flow is more SE (although magnitude is weaker). Cells on mnts are SLOWLY moving to the east. Yesterday we were not able to get a sounding into the system. We need to add an over-ride button to the nowcaster so that if a sounding isn't available then we can enter our own steering flow. Also, it would be nice if the monitor could print the value that is being used to advect the radar_cu. 1800 - Sounding very moist, good forecasted cape with a fairly large cap. Winsds aloft are light. Expect some weak upslope flow through out the day but some doubt if there will be enough warming to get convection started. It has been overcast throughout the day. 1900 - DCZ is still there and still week. The SE are 3-5 m/s. Temperatures are still relatively cool (Byers high with 27). Mid-level stratiform clouds are suppressing heating. Convection on the mtns has hot spots of 50 dBZ but cells are small. Colide (1903) is picking up several false detections associated with what it thinks are fine lines. The most problematic one is number 53 because it may be triggering in ground clutter. The CLASS sounding shows weak flow aloft, lots of moisture, and forecast CAPE of 1000. The convective temperature is ~28. This maybe a problem for triggering convection in our region due to mid-level clouds that are suppressing heating extend to our east (not sure how far due to lack of satellite data). 1920 - Small moderate cells to W and SW of radar over the mtns. Everything moving on the plains quickly desipates. 2000 - Miga, CLD detecting bdy 15km to NW of radar. BDY1 is weak and slow moving. Surface flow is light from the SE. DCZ is having trouble staying together. Lines of enhanced reflectivity that run SW to NE have formed and our moving to the NW. The lines do not have a visible velocity structure. Storms on the mountains are hanging in there but are not strong (they are moving to the east). We do not have a good satellite loop. Colide is picking up boundary layer features, MIGFA has trigger sporatically. No satellite data is available. Satellite shows clearing to our SE (boundary of clouds at the radar). Temperatures are beginning to increase in that area as well. Thirty minute forecast is for storms to continue to die as they move off the mtns. 2015 - Convergence is the strongest at the radar. Finally picking up some northerly flow (although it is quite shallow - visible on the .5 deg scan and not on the 1.5 deg scan. Max. convergence is at the radar (approximately on the line where there is clearing). No cloud development. There is a cell upwind of where the boundary is located. 2030 - Both MIGFA and Colide are picking up convergence boundaries well. The sfc convergence is still strong. The satellite is showing "fuzzy" clouds not good cumulus development. Nowcast are being issued based on reflectivity aloft but I will be surprised if they verify. Another interesting point is that MIGFA is doing a consistently better job of picking up the convergence boundary then Colide. This is because the boundary is very shallow. It is easily detected in the 0.5 deg elevation scan that MIGFA uses but is very difficult to detect in the lowest level gint interpolated volume. 2100 - Storms on the mountains have decreased in intensity (with the exception of a cell coming off the mtns onto the Palmer divide that has large area of 55 dBZ and should be able to survive because of structure and because it is moving onto the divide. The convergence boundary over the radar continues to develop and is looking more like a DCZ. There are two other boundaries of note; one off the mtns to the north moving south that would be in the location of the current DCZ in app. 1.8hrs and a boundary to the south moving to the north that should be in DCZ area in a little over an hour. The collision should be interesting. Currently there is no convective development along the line. Colide is now picking up all three boundaries. MIGFA has 2 of the three. 2106 - Mountain convection is weak. Nothing forming on the Palmer ridge today either. We just dont warm up enough today to get anything going. The day was only good for weak boundaries that dont initiate storms. 2120 - There is a small cell that has initiated to the south in association with the large cell that is moving off the boundary onto the Palmer divide. This is in the area were we have had consistent heating. Still expect main convection to be in association with the collision. The western end of the collision will be enhanced by the gust front that just initiated this cell. 2220 - Well nothing much has happened! Another cell initiated on the gust front coming from the south. The boundaries predicted to collide at 22:00 are currently in the process of colliding. There is tremendous convergence and vorticity along the DCZ (that has now been enhanced by collision). Nowcast are being issued along the line. The real question is whether there will be enough lift to get cold boundary layer air to the level of free convection. Temperatures are still rather chilly (70 to 74) in the region. Colide is picking up boundaries the best, MIGFA has gotten the moving boundaries but is missing the DCZ and TREC is having trouble. The model is also having trouble forecasting the strong convergence field. Without a good mechanism to automatically detect surface lifting, the automated forecast is hopeless. I think that our best chance is Colide.
Today was a very interesting day. We had several boundaries which, at times, initiated storms. There were other times when the nowcaster issued forecasts of storm initiation (based on radar detected clouds over first guess area with neg. mli.) and nothing happened. The reason why storms didn't initiate is because the clouds were not the cumulus cloud development that we'd like to see. This is just another example of what we already know -- better cu cloud detection is needed.
MIGFA did a great job detecting boundaries today.
We had problems with the 500 m velocity data. There were several times when it would only display data within a 10 km or 25 km range ring (but the radial data showed that all data exists). The problem is being worked on.
The GINT server had to be restarted several times today because the 500 m data was lost on cidd display. The problem may be related to the other one but in the mean time restarting the GINT server is the only solution.
As for the nowcaster, a new version has been installed that allows us to compare the nowcast with fields at the verify time. Upon looking at this, it was found that due to problems with the CIDD display we were unable to display the verification field correctly. Need to make changes to the CIDD parameter file to get this to work. Work will be done on this tomorrow to make sure it's now displaying correctly and see how well the forecasts are verifying. The problem the nowcaster was having with large thunderstorms has been solved. Until yesterday's version was installed the nowcaster was classifying all TITAN extrapolations as large thunderstorms but now it distinguishes between large thunderstorms, large thunderstorms from the mountains and small thunderstorms. We are definitely making progress!
0200 - AP begin time. 0430 - Appox. AP end time. 1245 - Radar down. 1645 - Radar back up. 1700 - Weak to moderate convection over the mtns, mainly in the NW radar quad. 1732 - Westerly push coming off the mtns, 45 km to WSW. BDY1 - not detected. 1800 - 35-40 dB cell initiates 35 km to W of radar. BDY1 30 km to the W, moving to the E, and extends down to 70km SW of radar. 1820 - Convection has already started! Gust front off the mtns is initiating cells. The gust front has NOT been picked up by either algorithm (although there is a chance that they are not running). TREC is getting the convergence (nothing else is). The min-max forecast that only requires cumulus and surface convergence (>3 x 10-3) isn't too bad. The forecast that requires boundaries is poor as reported by algorithms. The flow at the surface is strong NNE at 14 m/s. Cells formed on the mtns early (like 16:00). Class sounding is not available. Today Jim's favorite pet theory of the summer is definitely applicable here in that the steering flow is in the same direction and speed as the gust front. The cells that moved off the mtns with the gust front actually died and new storms have been initiated along the boundaries. 1830 - A restart of colide convinces me that it is not picking up important boundaries at this time. We will need to go back and work on parameters for this case. There is not a fine-line only shear, and the shear is relatively weak. 1836 - 45-50 dB , strongest core, 30km 250deg. Line of activity extends S. down to the palmer ridge. 1845 - I don not think the product server is up. This is a problem because I really do not know what the algorithm has and hasn't gotten. 1905 - 45- 50 dB cores from 10-40km SSW of radar. Southern part of line has weakened. BDY really cant be detected now but probably lies on the leading edge of precip line. 1917 - Little change on southern line, core is still 45-50 dB. New cell off foothills, 50km 290 deg. 1920 - I have been able to review the Colide boundaries. They just didn't pick up this boundary off the mountains. It's signature is weak with no fine-line and difficult shear line that is very cellular in nature. The storms are rapidly moving to the west. extrapolation forecast is reasonable. This case was frustrating from the algorithm standpoint because the "front" stayed very close to the convection so it was very hard for the algorithm to identify the boundary. Actually MIGFA is doing a slightly better job in this region. 1930 - Another storm just to the west of Boulder has come off. It is interesting that the cell has actually increased in intensity as it has moved off. TITAN has done a reasonable job, except since the cell was moving off the boundary with out moving onto a boundary, the forecast was for no development. Instead the cells are thriving. HMMM...I would love to have a sounding. Colide is still having trouble. I haven't played with the shear parameters very much (instead I have worked primarily with the reflectivity), so hopefully we can get the problem solved. 1940 - Cell 40km 290, 55+ dB. MIGFA detecting BDY on edge of cells to SSE. Line of 50 dB cells 90km to NW, cell motions are E-SE. 1948 - MIGFA detecting vel. freature on edge of cells. 1958 - Line to SE overall is weak. One core of 55 dB 40km 145deg. Cell core 45km 300deg. Main core on this storm is moving to NE. NW line is 85km out. 2000 - Cell is now east of Boulder and is cranking right along, extrapolation forecast is good. There is growth, again collide isn't doing as well as MIGFA at picking up these gust fronts. Not sure why, I am looking into it. 2027 - Core 55km to SE. This line has deminished down to this one cell. Cell core 40 km to NW, still around 55 dB with weaker 40 db extending 20 km to SE of there. BDY2 from this cell, 25km to NW. 2058 - BDY2, 20 km SE of radar, arcs around to W. 60km 250deg., and extends to NE. 80 +km. Core on bdy, 50dB, 10km to S. NEw development to NE. 2100 - The boundary is continuing to move through the area. I have been working with Zhongqi to fine-tune Colide. I think we got the parameters changed in order to pick up shear boundaries. I can not tell for sure because of problems with GINT. GINT (which is the interpolation algorithm that produces 500 m data and is the input for colide) has been causing us grief all day. Therefore, colide is also not running properly. MIGFA is doing a good job. Sandra reports that the forecast are problematic because of poor cumulus detections. 2115 - Entire NE section has fille in with 35-40 dB cells. This portion of BDY is moving to the ESE. MIGFA has good detection of this bdy. New cell, 40 dB, 50 km to WSW. 2145 - MIGFA stopped detectin BDY2. This line is still quite strong to the South. Eastern part is covered with cells. Leading edge of cells is 45 km to E. Southern section of bdy 50km to S. New development over mtns to W-NW. 2200 - Continuing to make changes to Colide. Zhongqi just installed a new version of the software. Hopefully we will get better boundary detections. 2212 - Convection over mtns in NW quad is extensive. NEw cell developing 60km to the SSW. Line to east has max ref of 45-50 dB. This max is 55km to E. BYD 2 65km to S. 2242 - Convection off on to plains from longmont up past Ft. Collins. Max ref's of 55 dB. CXell 55km to W, max ref of 65+ dB. 2253 - Ref thin line (BDY3) 5 km NW of radar. orientation is NE-SW. Migfa is detecting it. 2300 - Massive convection continues. Extrapolation works well. The changes made to Colide seem to be working. A gust front that is hanging close to a strong storm West of Denver is being detected well. I am leaving for the day. 2305 - Cell on palmer ridge, 55 dB. Northern cells have been fallin apart. Cell just S. of Denver, holding in around 60 dB, 35km WSW of radar. 2328 - Large area of >=40 dB echo 60-100km to North. 55 dB cell 25km to SW. 2358 - Motions continue to east. Most of the precip in area is weak except cell 30 km SSE which has 55 dB echo and a fairly large area of 40+ dB echo with it. 0027 - Cells 30 + km to E or radar have intensified. Several cores over 55 dB. 45 km 140 deg, 65+ dB. Core 55 dB 45km 120deg, and cluster of 50-55dB echos 80 km to NE. 0056 - From 90km 50deg down to 70km 140deg there is a line almost completely filled in with 40+ dB echo. Strongest core , 65km 135 deg, 60 dB. 0132 - 55 dB hanging in on cell 90km 130deg. Everything has clear out to the west of this cell. 0330 - Very noticable increase in the clear air return with-in the past 30 minutes.
This was a good weather day with lots of initiation and extrapolation of strong cells. Unfortunately, the forecast weren't as good as we had hoped. We had problems forecasting initiation due to positive LI field in regions where the initiation occurred. We also had problems with the radar-cu detection.
The radar_cu is being detected using the 1 km cartesian data. I am not sure that it is possible to get good cu detections off 1 km data. We have to do something different and hopefully better. Using the current system, I have modified my nowcasting file to only look for vertical development (i.e. I am looking at 6-8 km for *higher* reflectivites) and giving up on clouds".MIGFA did reasonably well today (this was it's type of weather -- lots of moving boundaries).We had problems with MIGFA today. For some unknown reason it would go into this state where it started hogging all the memory. Once it went into this state it would hang the nowcaster and the 500 m data so we eventually had to kill MIGFA for awhile just to get things running for the demo.
There was a demo for the FAA in the afternoon which had a big impact on our operations. But we have another good case for playback!
1800 - Small cells 90km to SW. Small Cu over foothills. Sounding has ~500 J/kg of cape. Low level flow is Northwesterly. Expected 500mb short wave passage around 21Z. 5km winds are NW at 30knts. 1830 - Radar shows surface winds from the NW. Convection has already begun on the mountains and Palmer divide. Sounding show strong north-westerly flow aloft. Cells on the mtns are moving rapidly at 25 km to the ESE in 30 minutes. There is reasonable moisture and cells should initiate. The surface flow is from the west. 1900 - Scattered cells. Colide is picking up lots of very marginal boundaries. It appears to be set to sensitive and needs to be fine-tuned. 1930 - Meeting ... Flow continues from the NW, 50+ dBZ cells have formed on both divides however, the mountains are not doing well. Should have lots of outflow and they should initiate storms (sounding is relatively unstable (Cape 800) and we are a degree away from convective temperature. According to the differential shear rule (we need a good name... Jim's new pet theory). Boundaries moving south from the cells on the Cheyenne divide should do better than boundaries moving north from the Palmer divide. Surface convergence isn't ideal in either case, so we are relying on the comparison between boundary speed and steering flow speed. Cells coming off hills near Ft. Collins. Moderate cells over mtns and palmer ridge, SW. 1958 - 75km 340 deg, 55 dB cell moving to SE. BDY1, 65km to NW, outflow from these cells. Movement is to the SSE. 2000 - Cells on divide continue to develop. A gust front is coming out of the one on the cheyenne divide, it is too far out for for MIGFA, colide is getting it (along with a bunch of other junk. 2010 - BDY2, 80 km 170deg, movement to NE. Line of cells forming behind it. Core 55+ dB 75km 320 deg. 2016 - Moderate cell over Boulder, cell forming 35km 300deg. 2022 - BDY3, 50km to W, moving to E. Cells forming along a shear zone WNW of radar, 30-80km. Cell on S> enod of bdy3, 60km 240deg. 2030 - The gust front associated with the Cheyenne divide convection is being picked up very well by both colide and migfa. colide is giving a longer detection. There is a gust front to the west with cells moving out that colide is not picking up but migfa is doing good job (check 20:33). By 20:39 Colide had this boundary. I am making changes to colide in real time trying to get better detections. 2039 - BDY1 30km to NW, cells jus on its NE edge, 40 km N - 80km NE of radar, ref 45 dB. Cell on BDY3 50+ dB, 50 km to SW moving to E-SE. BDY3 location, 50km to W. 2057 - Line of cells behind bdy1, 25km N of radar, cells peaking around 55 dB. 30 km 290deg is a 50 dB cell which had initiated in the shear zone earlier. BDY3, 25km to West, cell to SW 55dB, 50 km to SW. 2100 - I am being kicked off lull for the next two hours because of FAA demo. 2110 - I am looking at the RDI display. Boundaries continue to move thorough and are initiating convection. As follows theory the boundary from the Cheyenne divide has been active. The forecast should be good because they are obeying rules and they are being detected by MIGFA. However, there are problems. There are several boundaries that colide is having trouble with detecting. 2111 - COLIDE detections went crazy... lots of boundaries this is my fault and is due to changes in the parameter file. Cells are large..nowcast should be better. The gust front from the Cheyenne divide and a gust front associated with convection off the mountains are merging. The area of a "zipper" convergence has thunderstorms that have gotten quite large. The nowcast are currently having trouble pulling in the TITAN product which deep ends the nowcast. This will be a good case to provide us information. 2130 - BDY1, 5km N. 45 dB cell over radar, cells 65km to NE on BDY1. Radar is intersection point of BDY1 and BDY3. BDY3 extends from radar to the S. 80km. 55 dB cell is still going. Line of echo just NW of Boulder. Demos are becoming more intense. Not sure that I will be able to do much more. The boundaries have merged and large thunderstorm line is moving to the South east. 2145 - Between the noise it was determined there was a problem with starting and stopping colide. The problem was solved and colide should be back. I haven't' seen a detection. TITAN output was also back into nowcaster. 2155 - colide boundaries look good. There are alot of them but they are doing well. 2200 - Major line of thunderstorm continues to move east. Over boulder we had a "snake-like" cell that produced strong outflow. All the winds are extremely strong. Extrapolation is the main forecast rule that is currently important. The colide boundaries are still not performing as well as I would like. The problem is when there is a strong flow at the edge of a line of thunderstorms. Everything is still moving rapidly to the south east. 2201 - BDY1 and BDY3 have joined to one feature, 40km to SE. Cells along the bdy are in 50 dB range. New line off foothills by boulder. Also around 50 dB. 2218 - Migfa was killed. Machine was loading up were 500m data was not being served to cidd and there were no detections coming out of MIGFA. 500m data back ofter MIGFA was killed. 2224 - BDY4, 45 km to W, moving to S. 2230 - 55 dB cell, 37 km to W, on line off mtns. Line has held together but like most stuff today it hasn`t been real strong. Big line to ESE continues to hold in with moderate reflectivities. Initiation associated with the boundary from the cells that were over Boulder continue to initiate (initiation primarily associated with part of the boundary that is moving directly south. This would have been a tough forecast because the air is stable and rain has already fallen in this region. Colide is not sending boundaries, I do not know what the problem is and because of all the FAA guys, I can't check. 2242 - BDY4, 30 km to SW, no new growth on this bdy. 2245 - Colide is back and doing a pretty good job. 2253 - AP to the west 2305 - BDY5, 40 km to NNE, moving to N. LIne of cells to NW is falling apart rapidly just NW of radar. SE line is 90 km to SE. 2322 - BDY6, push from the west, 25km to WNW. 2334 - Activity 80km to N, quite elsewhere. 0021 - BDY7, 90 km to NNW. BDY`s 5&6 never triggered any convection. BDY5 , 70km to NNE. 0050 - 60+ dB cell, 90km to N, moves to the SE and by 0139 becomes just weak precip 80km to NNE. Outflow, 20 km to NNE. 0219 - Out flow 15km S.,moving ~30 mph.
The convection in the afternoon was very nice. Large storms that pretty much obeyed the forecast rules. This should be a good case to use to tune the auto-nowcaster. Early on the clouds were great and they should also provide good information for cloud detection algorithms.
Today was difficult from the software standpoint. It was really the first day where problems continued thorough out the afternoon. We had no TITAN detection/extrapolations from 1830 - 2200. There was no 1km radar data over the same time period so we had no radar cu detection. When this happens the nowcaster assumes that there is no first guess boxes (even though we had them because they're generated from the radial data). The surface data was down most of the day. The model was still down while changes are stil being made. By the way, the model was down yesterday also.
The beginning of the day, the boundary layer velocity structure was fascinating. Even my vivid imagination regarding interpretation of radar data was hard pressed to understand what was happening.
The MIGFA directory is on Draft in /lull_d1/awdl/migfa/product_data. COLIDE has an awful lot of boundaries running around today, but it picked up the major ones (even those closely associated with convection that it wasn't getting before). However, the shear number is large. Also there is sometimes problems due to the input data set of gint as opposed to the radial field.
The last few days have also convinced me that we need to put in logic regarding collisions.
There are still bugs associated with running the nowcaster in archive mode so I haven't been able to go back and look at past cases.
0323 - Clear air rapidly returning 0335 - stong AP or clutter of some kind, 90km to WNW. 0530 - AP gone. 1200 - Clear air decreasing in past 30 min. 1546 - Seeing AP or clutter again, 90km to WNW. 1645 - The mean flow is to the west. However the velocity is showing an interesting pattern where to the west of the radar there are 10 km EW stripes of receding then approaching flow (in the movie it looks like fingers of easterlies form in the predominantly westerly flow). It is very interesting. There is no mesonet data until 16:53 at this time the SE are visible. There is no significant convection in the mountains, a few towering cu pretty far back and some high level cirrus. The fingers are drifting to the north. 1730 - Temperatures are finally warm, ranging from 29-31 degrees mixing ratios are between 5-7. Velocity pattern looking more westerly (i.e. fingers of easterlies have eroded away). However, near the foothills to the south the easterlies have build up along the front range, Interestingly enough, there are two very weak cells going up (probably due to upslope) in this region. The mesonet data supports the easterly interpretation, although one could also interpreted the radial velocity data as a weak northly jet forming along the foothills but this is not substantiated in mesonet. 1800 - The shallow easterly flow is still hanging in there. The cells that are going up are also coming down rapidly (<30 min life cycle and max reflectivity of 40 or so). The sounding shows that we are already mixed out, moisture seem to be hanging in there but Cape is relatively small (444) even by Colorado standards. Winds aloft are light and westerly. Cu over mtns, drifting on planes to the S. 1820 - 45 dB cell 55km 218deg. 5 km winds are lighter today, ~30knts from the WNW. Cell motions are to East. Sounding forecasted cape is 440 J/kg. Minimal cap. Appears to be some warm air advection at 850mb, and PVA at 500mb at 12Z. initialization. 1830 - Upslope continues, one cell is actually getting to be pretty nice. Even on the best of days the autonowcaster would have trouble with this one. colide is finding boundaries, migfa is not. It would be hard to say that the boundaries found by colide are significant. Not getting model or surface convergence fields. 1844 - SW fairly active with weak cells. Cell, 50dB, 55km at 213deg. 1900 - Cu thickens over mtns. SW cell, 50km to SW, has weakened. Palmer ridge still maintaining cells 80km to S, 50 dB. Visual shows nice vertical development in the north and south. Rolls to the east have small cu forming on them. There are no nowcast because cells still relatively small and there are no first guess box or convergence fields. I am not sure that I agree with this forecast, visually it is clear cells will be popping in next 30 minutes. 1930 - Convection is firing to the north along the front range due to upslope. There are also cells forming along the rolls to the east. There is convection forming to the east (clouds look good) still no reflectivity greater than 25 dBZ aloft, but I feel certain these cell will go. Sorry, to say there is no MIGFA detection on the rolls and no model or surface convergence so a forecast will not be issued. This is a good day for the satellite cu work and to go back and try for an algorithm to detect cu. ... As far the real-time aspects of today, so far it is pretty difficult because the servers are having fits and we are having trouble getting all the data to come into the nowcaster and into the displays. This is really the first "flakey" day where there seems to be multiple problems. The storms have not taken off as rapidly as I expected, so the nowcast aren't too bad. The cloud fields are beautiful, visually there is a line hard dark bases just to the south of Foothills. I do not know why this line should not be able to make it. Although things are better we are still having major problems. 2010 - Colide is coming up with multiple detections... but I don't have radar data to check it against. There are alot of linear type features out there that Colide is triggering on. I am not sure what we want to do in regards to the sensitivity. I hate to mess around with it today until I have verified the changes that were made yesterday. 2011 - BDY1, outflow off mtns, 50 km to W> 2023 - BDY1, 30km W. Fast developing cell, 45km to W, 50dB. New cell, 30km to N, 30dB. 2030 - Lots of boundaries, strong westerly flow off the mtns. There is one cell (west of Denver) that formed in association with the updraft bases that I was describing. I don't think we got the forecast because of other problems (still a very flaky day). Colide has problems near the radar due to the interpolation scheme. Bad Colide detection, misses strong flow coming off from the west. Don't know why... Auto-nowcast still down. The problems continue, we are most likely down for the afternoon. I am going to continue watching but there are no products. The westerly flow associated with the boundary off the mtns is active and I suspect it will continue to be active. Behind the boundary the air is cool, dry, and stable. 2040 - BDY1, 20km to W. Cells behind bdy have increased in area, 55dB max ref. 30 km W, extending to SW, 50 km 240deg. BDY2, 50km to N. Moving S. BDY3, 35km to SE, moving North. 2103 - BDY1, 2km W. convection behind has begun to weaken. BDY2, 35km to N., no cells along it. BDY3, 30km to SE. Cell initiates 50 km to ESE on this bdy. 2121 - New initiation on BDY3, 50km to ESE. There was a collision of some kind in this area. Either with a roll or another outflow bdy. Convectiction isnt real strong. In the 40 dB area. BDY2, cell 55km to NE, 40 dB. BDY 2 location is 40km to N. BDY1, 10km to E of radar. Convection is moderate and extending from radar to 50 km SW. 2144 - BDY1, 30km E, line of 40+ dB behind the bdy. Line is 40 km long and centered at 35km 170deg. Strongest core in this line is located at the center point and has a ref of 55 dB. BDY3, 50km to E, quickly leaving cells behind. 2200 - The boundary continues to initiate as it moves thorough the eastern part of our area. Colide is doing a good job of catching the boundary that is near the line of strong reflectivity. 2202 - BDY4, 70km to N., heading to S. BDY3, 40km to N, heading North. Eastern convection has deminshed in intensity with best core of 50 dB, 45 km to SE. 2237 - BDYS 3 and 4 collide 50 km to N. Nothing happens at this time on collision. AP to west.
0155 - AP to west gone. 0330 - Clear air rapidly increased over the previous 30 min. 0350 - AP again to the West. 0550 - Appox time AP is gone. 90 km to S, 45 dB shower. 50 km to W, weak 35 dB cell. 0738 - Small weak cells 80km to SE. Few are 40 dB. Large area of enhanced ref 90 km to NW, which is moving to the SW. Nothing in vel associated with this. 0819 - Cells moved off to the SE. Line of enhanced ref is 70 km to NE. 0953 - Line has moved to just NE of radar. It looks more like 2 pockets of enhanced ref at this time. One 60 km to ESE and the other30 km to the NW. Ref are 15 - 20 dB. 1004 - Cell develops on palmer ridge and move to the east. 1230 - Clear air has deminished over the past 30 min. 1900 - Surface flow is light westerly. Flow aloft is from the NW. The mountains are clear. 20OO - A nice storm has come off on the Palmer Divide and is holding it's own. Small cells are coming off the mtns to the west and slowly croaking. Outflow associated with the storms are relatively strong and are in the direction of the environmental flow (NW). Another boundary forms (starting around 19:30) in the NE quadrant of the radar. It is associated with NE flow because I am looking in play-back, I am not sure whether the boundary detection algorithms pick up this boundary. 2100 - Storms are active on both divides. The boundary to the NE is moving thorough the network and is located 5 km NE of the radar. There is a fine line associated with the outflow from the cells that came off the mtns to the west. It has reoriented itself so that it is parallel to the NE boundary and I expect the two to merge. The storms on the Palmer divide have sent out a weak gust front. Look out for the collision (still a couple of hours away). 2200 - Boundaries everywhere. They are not active and haven't collided. There is one cell that went up with a boundary just west of Louisville. I would expect it to come down relatively quickly. 2300 - Boundarys haven't collide yet, there are weak cells. The collision is 45-60 minutes away. The boundary moving down from the north has initiated weak cells. 0000 - collision - growth has already started in the western portion of the collision. 0100 - Collision goes pretty well. Convection on the cheyenne divide sends down another rapidly moving boundary. don't expect it to produce. 0130 - Storms to the SE of the radar go big. They initiated with the collision and were able to put out a gust front that sustained them. They are the only cells that survived the collision. 02 and 03 as a rule cells decreasing in intensity with the exception of the large cell discussed above that keeps on going till out of near-field radar range.
0030 - AP to NW. 0454 - AP strong to north and also a line of strong AP return 85km to ESE. 60 dB. 0621 - AP gone by this time. 1149 - Clear air return has decreased in the last 30 minutes. 1811 - 45 dB cell 80 km to SSW. Convection starting in mtns 90km to SW and also just SW of Ft. Collins. 1847 - SW quad over mtns has increased convection in past 30 minutes. The best core is 85 km to SSW, with a ref of 55 dB. Some weak stuff to west of Longmont. 1945 - Best activity remains to SSW. All the convection is still on mtns or palmer ridge at this time. 2043 - 65 km S of radar, 55 dB cells, moving to the east. BDY1 centered at 20 km south of the radar, oriented NW-SE and moving to NE. There is another cell on the bdy at this time and it is located 25km 240 deg from radar. 2113 - BDY1 at the radar. Still some weak to moderated stuff 15- 20 km behind the bdy. 2136 - BDY 10 km NE of radar, still scattered convection behind it with some new convection developing 20km or so out ahead of bdy, 40 - 60 km NE of radar. Loose radar, at least no 500m or 1km data in cidd, at this time.
No storms today -- too dry and stable. There was also a strong cap near 500 mb preventing any possible storm development.
MIGFA is still having problems. The problem continues to impact other programs associated with DRAFT (which is just about all of them). MIGFA programers from Lincoln Labs will log onto our machine and try to fix the problem Tues. morning (7/25).
The model is running again, now we just have to wait for weather.
The last day has been spent looking at past data to determine better ways of identifying cumulus clouds.
0746 - Radar data back in Cidd. 1214 - Clear air decreased over past 60 minutes. This day had some weak convection over the mtns and palmer ridge. At 0014 there was a boundary to the NW 60km with some weak convection trailing behind it. At 0043 a 45 dB cell forms 70 km to NW but is viery short lived. AP begins to appear around 0117 and continues till 0230. It was weak today. At 0343 see a strong clear air return again.
Another clear day due to an upper level ridge. We have dry, northwesterly winds resulting in downslope flow and no storms. Unfortunately, the outlook for the rest of this week doesn't look very good with the models showing that we will continue to be under the influence of the upper level ridge.
Since there's no weather there are only have a few things to report regarding operations. Problems continue with MIGFA. Then new version that Dick and John worked on this morning will not run here so the old version is still running. Hopefully it wont start interferring with other programs (but it's not a big problem because there's no weather today). Two MIGFA cases have been scored, (july 13 and 18). Programmers are working on a technique that will allow us to click on CIDD and get a sounding. It should be in places sometime within the next couple of days.
0506 - Bdy, I would assume came from cells up in Wyoming. Located at 80km to N. Heading is south. 0604 - BDY 40 km to NNE. Has a double structure to it at this time. Wave like structure to it in velocity. Does not produce anything in our area. 2112 - Area of enhanced reflectivity 50 km to the S. and moving to the North. 2210 - BDY1, 60 km to ESE moving to the SW. Stationary bdy or roll 90 km to NE. No convection in the area at this time. 0014 - BDY2, 20 km to E moving NW. BDY2, 40km to SE moving SW. 0147 - BDY3, 60 km to the NE.
Another hot, dry day.
The new version of MIGFA is now running on our machine and we didn't have the memory problem that we had been experiencing. Although, the true test will come when we actually have lots of weather and interesting features to detect.
The skewt program has been completed. This program allows us to click anywhere in the network (at times when model data exists) and get a sounding representative of that location.
0242 - Appox start time of AP. 0346 - Clear air return greatly improved over the past 60 minutes. 0612 - AP at its strongest for this day. 0647 - AP completely gone. 0812 - Area of enhanced ref 20 km to NW of radar. 1200 - Clear air return has been decreasing over past 2 hrs. 1800 - Area of enhanced ref to East of radar. Motions are ENE. Some areas have ref of 15 dB. AP area 95 km to the WNW. 1900 - AP persists to WNW. Area of enhanced ref has become stronger over a wider area. Push of westerlies 50 km NW of radar. 2327 - AP to west continues. Clear air has decreased over the past 2hrs.
High pressure continues to dominate our weather (e.g. still hot, dry and no storms).
The only thing to mention is that the nowcaster is now ingesting the model mli and convergence fields correctly.
0229 - Very little clear air return at this time. AP continues to West. 0432 - Marked increase in clear air return over the last 2hrs. 0827 - Interesting velocity pattern, similar to what cindy noted the other day were there are fingers of receeding flow in with approaching flow. 0932 - Area of enhance ref 70km to the East of the radar, movinng to the south. 1518 - AP to the west is still there. 1720 - Convergence zone fine line 50 km to SSE. 1928 - AP to the west is gone.
0100 - Appox time AP started to the North. 0328 - Clear air increased over the Past hour. 0531 - Strong AP time in the north. 0730 - AP gone by this time. 1228 - Marked decrease in clear air over the past 2 hrs. 1858 - Enhance ref to the SE. Some bdy approaching from the SE, 85 km out. 2202 - BDY is 70 km to the ESE, with max ref around 15 dB. 0056 - BDY 50 km to ESE, and getting weak. Never had a real velocity signature to it. Another bdy, 90 km to the NE. 0204 - BDY is 45 km to NE. This bdy doesn't have much of a velocity feature with it either. Past couple of hours have shown a marked decrease in the clear air return. 0400 - Clear air return greatly improved over past hour.
1926 - Strong clear air return 70 km to NE. Look like some rolls enhanced over last 15-20 minutes. 2005 - 40 dB cell 90 km to West. 90km to NE, clear air return remains strong. 2024 - 2 cells pop up on the plains. One is 40 km 30 deg, and seems to be on some kind of bdy. Cells 2 is 30 km 240 deg. Both are 45-50 dB. 2054 - Cell 50 km to NE has max ref of 55+ dB. Cell motions are to the NE. 2115 - Lost radar data in cidd.
2252 - Cidd data is back. BDY1 40 km 150 deg. with a cell on it 50 km to S, ref of 55 dB. Another cell ~20 km behind bdy, 20 km SSW of radar, 50 dB. There are also cells 20 km or so out ahead of the bdy. There ref are in the 45- 50 dB range. BDY2, 80km to N, heading south. 2334 - BDY catch convection out ahead, and enhances the convection. Strongest cores are still around 55-60 dB. BDY 1 is 50km to ESE. 0003 - Activity increasing over mountains. BDY 1 is hard to see now. 60 km to the East continues to be an active area with several cells around 60 dB. This convection extends to NE 90+ km`s.BDY 2 40 km N and probably contibuting to the strong cells to ENE. 0101 - East and NE,SE are still active. Some cells over 60 dB. CLosest to radar is 75 km to NE. Line of weak ref over mtns to the West to NW. 0130 - Cell to the NE is remaining fairly sationary. Core is still around 70 km to NE. 0159 - 70 km to NE is still the hot spot but has weakend over last 30 minutes. Weak showers just NW of radar. 0338 - Convection in area has all died or moved out.
Not much to report. We went from hot, dry stable conditions last week to cold, moist stable conditions today. The difference between the noon and 3:00 class soundings were amazing. The 700 - 500 mb layer warmed up as much as 7 to 8 deg. in this 3 hr time period creating this tremendous cap and the high temperature was only 62 deg. (breaking a record for the lowest max temp. on this date).
0806 - Under northerly flow. Area just off the foothills has been an area of enhanced ref over past hour or so. At this time it has become even stronger especially to weat and NW of radar. 1019 - These weak showers moved south along foothills and are now SW of radar. 1434 - Weak precip from 30km S of radar up to 80 km to NE. 2247 - area of weak showers, 70km to NE moving to he SSE.01 aug 95 Operations status
Another day with no storms! We have a very dry and subsident air mass over us now. The outlook is not very good with an upper level ridge building over the Rockies resulting in drier and more stable conditions.
The forecast verification region is being set up. This has been defined as an area east of the mtns that contains all the data sources. So, the southern and eastern borders are based on locations where the surface data ends and the northern border corresponds to the 60 km range ring (which is where MIGFA stops detecting boundaries).
01 aug 95 Weather log
0316 - Improved clear air return over past 30 min. 0016 - Clear air return decreasing over past 90 min. 0143 - weak bdy 10 km NW of radar moving to NW. AP starting to N.02 aug 95 Weather log
0312 - Marked increase in clear air return over past 30 minutes. 0700 - Appox. end of AP. 1615 - AP to NNW. 1713 - Area of enhanced reflectivity 65 km to SE. 1742 - AP gone. 1900 - Strong clear air return 40 km to E. Near 25 dB. 2027 - 80 km to ESE, first cell over 40 dB pops up. 2125 - cell is 90 km to ESE and moving to SE. 0117 - BDY 45 km to SE, moving NW. Good velocity and ref signatures with it. Also start seeing AP to the North around this time. 0313 - Marked increase in clear air return over past 30 min.03 aug 95 Operations status
The auto-nowcaster did not perform very well today. There was a great deal of over forecasting due to poor cloud detections. The nowcast would have been significantly better however if we would have used the CIN field from the model. Will explore ingesting the CIN field into the auto-nowcaster.
03 aug 95 Weather log
0412 - Area of strong clear air return east of the radar. Reflectivities are in the 15 dB range. 1546 - Start to see BDY1, 55 km to SE, orientation E-W. 1716 - BDY1 has remained stationary. The thin line has enhanced and thickened. Ref on the Eastern portion of bdy are around 20 dB. Bdy extends all the way from the foothills, 70km SW of radar, to 100+ km to the ESE. 1745 - Good rolls 80 km to SE, extending off BDY1 to the SW. 1814 - Several small weak to moderate cells over the foothills west of radar. 1845 - 40 dB cell initiating on BDY1, 40 km to SE. 1916 - BDY1 is no longer recognizable, there is just a large area of enhanced ref in the area. Couple more cells are going up 40-60 km SE of radar. Cells appear to be going on the rolls. Convection over mtns. has increased. 1945 - Cell 60 km to ESE is putting out a circular outflow bdy. 2015 - Entire foothills in the SW quad have convection on them. Cell to the ESE moves to E and weakens. New convection 35-40 dB, 40 km S. of radar. 2044 - Convection moves off mtns to SW, maintaining a 35-40 dB refelectivity. Circular bdy has a real nice ref signature to it. The southward moving section is 70 km SE and the northern parts is 50 km TO ENE of radar. Cell to South has grown with max ref in the 40`s. This along with cells to SW have a BDY3 out ahead of them. Location of the bdys center point is 60 km S. of radar. 2113 - The only convection in the area at this time is between 20-50km to SSE. Looks like a bdy collision coming up 30 km E of radar. A N-S oriented bdy moving to east will collide with the NNW moving section of the circular bdy. 2142 - Convection initiaties on the collision and the existing cell in the area enhances. Cell locations are 30km E of radar. Once cell is reaching 45 dB. 2153 - Cells are forming in a NE-SW oriented line. Ref are strongest 30 km E, with ref around 50 dB. Line is moving to the ENE. 2222 - BDY4, 20km N of radar and heading to the NW. Strongest cores are 50 km to the NE. 2246 - 90 km to NNE, cell intensifying rapidly. 2256 - Cell has intensified to over 60 dB and a line is building back to the SW along BDY4. There is another bdy coming down from the N. which I think is colliding with BDY4 but hard to see this bdy on cidd display. 2309 - Cell froming 10 km behind bdy4, 60 km 30 deg. First initiation that isn't on the collision of the 2 bdys. 2321 - Cell is 65 km to NE with ref of 45 dB. Cells on bdy collision are still maxing out at 65+ dB, 80 km NE of radar. BDY's continue to zip up but no new convection in closer. Intersection point is 50 km to N. 2327 - Line of cells fire 60 km NE of radar. They are 10-20 km behind the bdy. One cell is reaching 55 dB. 0001 - Convection is dying out. BDY from the North dominated the collision and is 50 km N. of radar, heading S. 0053 - BDY5, the unnamed Northern bdy, is 40 km N of radar. There is some activity on it way out to the ENE, nothing in close. 0130 - AP developing to the N. 0314 - AP gone at this time.04 aug 95 Operations status
We had thunderstorms initiating along boundaries until a storm north of our forecast area produced a gust front which moved through the region creating very stable conditions.
There was no satellite data from 1800 - 2000 UTC. The program that grabs the satellite data was hung on our end so we just restart the program. There was no mesonet data until 1910 UTC because the program that grabs the mesonet data from mosaic went down. Apparently the machine was rebooted but this did not automatically restart the mesonet program.
The nowcaster was over-forecasting thunderstorm initiation again today. We had the same problem, poor cloud detections due to the algorithm's inability to distinguish stratiform "junk" from cumulus clouds.
04 aug 95 Weather log
1600 - A small thick bdy is moving to the S, 20 km East of radar. As it moves through the area rolls enhance. 1700 - 110km to NW, convection over the mountains. 1732 - Concection to NW has intensified to around 60 dB. Locaton, 90 km 320 deg. 1801 - NW convection is fallen apart rapidly. To W and SW small cells just of the foothills. 1808 - Outflow from the NW storms 50 km NW of radar. BDY2. Stationary bdy is forming 60 km to SE. 1842 - BDY2, 25 km NW of radar, continues to move to the SE. SOme weak cells are developing along it, 30 km to WNW. BDY to SE has been increasing in reflectivity. 1900 - Best cells at this time are in the SW quad and either on mtns or palmer ridge. BDY2 is 5 km NW of radar still producing weak cells. Another cell 100km to N. has a hook echo associated with it. 1930 - SW quad remains the active area. Some 50 dB echo is off the foothills 50 km 200deg from radar with other weak stuff to the N and NW of this spot. BDY 3, 60km to SSW, moving to SE. Cell initiating 110 km to the ENE on the stationary bdy. Cell on palmer ridge, 70km to SSE, should be interacting with the sationary bdy soon. The cell is currently around 60 dB. 1947 - Several cells have broken out on stationary bdy in the area were cell from palmer ridge interacted with the bdy. Ref of these cells are in the 50 dB range. BDY2 is ~5km SE of radar now. BDY3 is 70 km to SSW and has a good deal of 50+ dB echo associated with it. 1958 - Convection picking up over the Mtn again. Nice line of cells forming on the sataionary bdy. Solid line of cells of 50+ dB from 75km 157deg to 76 km 105 deg. 2016 - Line of cells continue to intensify, some are over 60 dB. More cells are popping up on the NE section of boundary. 2039 - Convection contiunes to develop over the Western and Northwestern mtns. Bueatiful line of cells in the SE quadrant moving E. 2103 - Concection starts to come of the foothills and rapidly decrease as they do. NW moving bdy (BDY4)from Eastern cells, 70 km E. 2201 - BDY4, 50 km to E. Showers from line off mtns are still weak and just to the NW of the radar. The cell is moving into a convergence zone were it might enhance. 2230 - Cell did intensify and is 30 km NE of radar. Ref are 50-55 dB. There is a boundary (BDY5) extending to the SW off this cell. AP visible to the N. 2258 - Cell hold together, 50 km to NE. Ref is 55 dB. BDY5, 30 km to SE, moving to SE. 2329 - Cells to NE have weakened, with max ref in the 30-35 dB range. New cell 100 km to NW, over Ft. Collins. 0201 - Strong AP to the N. 0332 - AP gone.05 aug 95 Operations status
0522 - Cells, 100km to NW. 0600 - BDY coming down from the N., 40 km to the N. 0629 - Double boudary structure. One band 10km N. the other 25km to N. 0658 - At this time I could make out several different bands of thin lines. Large area of 15 dB echo NE of radar. 1230 - Clear air return has deminished over the last hour, but there is an area 60km to SE of radar which has ref in the mid to upper teens. 1331 - Se continues to have a strong return, in the low 20's now. 1703 - Cells pop up over mtns, 90 km to NW. 1732 - Cells are on the plains,70 km to NNW and around 40 dB. Flow is northwesterly. 1757 - Cells die out on the plains while more development occures over mtns to the NW. 1827 - 45+ db cells from Longmont up to Ft. Collins. 1902 - Cells are having trouble maintaining as they move to the East off mtns. Roll structure 60 km to ESE. 1931 - Couple of weak outflows are set to collide soon, 30km West of the radar. Palmer ridge has a couple of small cells on it. 2000 - Cell does initiate on collision. 30 km to the west. Max ref in low 40's. 2029 - After collision bdy moves to SE, 40 km SW of radar.60 db cells 100km to NE and NW. 2058 - Rolls to the SE start to intiate some cells. BDY2, 70km N of the radar. Outflow from the storms to N. 2128 - BDY1, 60 km to SSE with two good cells associated with it. BDY2, is now 40 km to the N, and has some weak convection associated with it. 2157 - Cells on BDY1 have max ref in the upper 50's to low 60's and are located between 60 and 70 km to the SE. Very little associated with BDY2 which is now 10 km N. of the radar. BDY2, is a very well defined bdy and should be picked up by the bdy algorithms. 2232 - Cell on BDY2, 80km TO E. BDY is 20 km S. of radar. 2331 - Convection all gone is this area. Remains of BDY2 are 50 km S. of radar. 0058 - Some AP visible to the N. 0255 - AP gone.06 aug 95 Weather log
0324 - Large area of 15 dB echo E of radar. 1600- Strong AP to the north. 0027 - Several boundaries around, none of which initaite any convection. Best bdy was produced from cell that moved off foothills and quickly died. The bdy has a N-S oreintation, is moving to the east, and is currently 20 km West of the radar. 0200 - AP to the N. 0432 - AP gone.07 aug 95 Operations status
Hot and dry with downslopes winds but there was some mid-level moisture. Consequently, we did have several short-lived, high based, dry thunderstorms (some producing microbursts). The cells typically initiated along boundary collisions and horizontal rolls.
Laura updated the nowcaster parameter files so that the nowcaster scores on the updated verification region. The nowcaster is also sending a nowcast (based on the combined fuzzy field) to CIDD so we can display it as a product or continue to contour the nowcast field. The nowcaster keeps hanging up and every now and then a window will pop up that says we must click on a certain button in order for the nowcaster to continue.
07 aug 95 Weather log
SW flow today. Sounding has a good sized cap at ~380mb but a fair amount of cape below there. Winds aloft are light with very little shear. Temperatures made it into the upper 90's to low 100's and the moisture held in better than what we thought it would with the SW flow. We got what you would expect with these conditions. Cells initiated on bdy collisions with rolls and other bdys, grew fast and died fast as they hit the cap and fell back through there updraft. First cells formed around 18:30Z, 60km east of the radar. Some of these cells would reach ref of 40-50 dB but all were very short lived. At 19:21 a cell 70 km south of the radar produce a nice ring outflow which really cleared out the return in that area. At 00:17 NE moving boundary is just 5 km NE of radar.
08 aug 95 Operations status
Another hot, dry day but we have hope because a front is expected to move through northeast CO later today which could produce a few isolated storms.
I don't have much to say because I didn't spend much time in the lab today. The problem associated with the auto-nowcaster hanging has been fixed. Apparently, it was taking a very long time for the nowcaster to create the actual forecast shapes over the entire area. So changes were made and now we are only getting forecast products from the nowcaster that are within our much smaller verification region. Also added was information re: wind speed and direction at each altitude of interest (which is determined from the parameter file) to the data monitor.
08 aug 95 Weather log
0145 - AP 0347 - AP gone. 0840 - Stong AP over SW mtns. 1800 - AP continues over the mtns to the WNW. 2045 - AP gone to the west. Cells form 60km SW of radar. 45 dB. 2144 - Palmer ridge is still active. 50 dB cell, 70 km to SSW. 2213 - Line of cells streching to the S from 50km 165deg, down to 90km 185deg. Max ref in this line are 45-50 dB. Hint of a boundary 30 km ENE of radar with E-W orientation. 2242 - Line breaks up to S but one cell strengthens, 75 km 165deg, with ref of 55-60 dB. Cell just NE of Ft. Collins. Small cell initiating on BDY1 20 km SE of radar. 2311 - Two cells on BDY1 now. BDY2 40 km to NNE, orientation is NE-SW. 0045 - Cells on BDY1 are dead now. BDY2 continues to move to W with no convection associated with it. 0114 - BDY3, 80km to NE, heading SW. 0144 - BDY3, 60km to NE. 0213 - BDY3, 40km to NE. SOme small cells form behind the bdy but are quickly left behind and dont last. 0311 - Clear air return greatly increased over past 30 minutes. Cells break out along and behind BDY3 just NW of radar and over radar. BDY is now over radar. Cells are weak to moderate and small in size. 0543 - Large area of enhanced ref to W of radar. Ref are in the low 20's.09 aug 95 Operations status
There was a tremendous cap that we needed to overcome (based on the 1700 sounding) in order to have a very active day. The convective temperature today was ~35C and most of the temperatures across the network did not even reach 30C. So obviously we did not get much convective activity over the plains. Several storms did develop over the mtns. earlier however but they quickly died as they moved off. These mtn storms produced several gust fronts but we just couldn't get past the cap.
The nowcaster continues to over-forecast in these situations, based on startiform clouds (like today). And once again these nowcasts would not have been issued if we were using the CIN field. Another problem that needs to be addressed is the importance of the strength of convergence. Currently, anytime MIGFA detects convergence (no matter how weak the feature) we follow the same set of rules. I think we really need to start looking at how much of an impact the convergence strength has on the nowcast.
09 aug 95 Weather log
0717 - Clear air continues to be quite strong over a large majority of the area. 0946 - Very strong clear air return along foothills and front range, especially West of Loveland were ref are close to 40 dB. 1704 - Convecton starting over mtns, 80 km to W. 17Z sounding still shows a temperature inversion at sfc to 700mb. Convective temp is around 95F. Lot of cape if convective temperature is reached but little chance that we will get that warm. Mtn convection should be good today. 1803 - Convection over mtns has increased some. Only activity is to the WSW at this time. 1950 - Good example of a forecast that could be greatly improved if we were using the CIN field. Cell just west of Ft. Collins and a stronger cell 70km NW of radar. Nothing has made it onto the plains yet. 2002 - Cell over Ft. Collins now. Ref near 50 dB. BDY1, 40 km 200 deg. MIGFA is doing a good job detecting this bdy but collide is not. 2032 - BDY1, 43km 190deg. moving to the SE. Cell to E of Ft. collins is sustaining with max ref of 45-50 dB. Cell 60 km to SW has max ref near 55-60 dB. 2101 - Cell to SW died quickly upon moving on plains. Collide is now picking up bdy1 which is now 40km to South. Cell to N is still holding a 40+ dB return. 0058 - AP to the North. 0759 - AP gone in past hour.10 aug 95 Weather log
1901 - Rolls and strong clear air return to the East. 0200 - AP to the North. 0758 - AP strong at this time. 1000 - Ap even stronger than at 0758. 1300 - AP gone to the North but still visible to the WNW. 1700 - AP gone.11 aug 95 Weather log
1700 - Strong clear air return to SE. 2000 - 40 dB cell 55km to W or radar. Stronger cells 85 km to SW. 2058 - Mainly weak cells to the SW. One cell with dB in the 40's, 50 km to SSE. BDY 1, 75km to SSE, heading to SE. 2157 - Cells on BDY1, which is 70km to SE. BDY2, 70km to SSW. Strongest cell is 30 km SE of radar with ref max close to 50 dB. 2302 - 40 dB cells from 30 km NE of radar extending to the SE out to 60km to the ESE. 0000 - Best cells are 90 km to NE. E is still active with 40- 45 dB pockets BDY3, 50 km to the NNW, heading SSE. 0058 - Convection 50+ km to the SE and 90 + km to ENE. New convection over foothills just west of boulder and SW of Ft. Collins. 0157 - Line comes of the foothills and extends 10 km N of longmont to ~10 km N of Den. ref are between 40-50 dB. 0301 - Line extends to N. of Greely, through Greely and down close to DIA. Strongest core is 50 km N of radar, with ref of 55-60 dB. Few cells in the 45 dB range, just to West of Denver. AP starting to NNW. 0400 - Extensive area of weak precip throughout the area. Some pockets of 45+ dB echos to E and NE. 0458 - Line of 40 dB echo 20 km E of radar. May be associated with a gust front byt not sure. 0557 - AP very strong to NNW, and to the S. NE still covered with weak to moderate precip. 0800 - Precip gone but still a lot of AP around. 0900 - AP gone.