Forecast Evaluation Tools

One of the major tasks currently under way is the development of a state-of-the-art suite of software tools for evaluating forecast performance. The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) version 1.0 is currently available for download. An updated version with bootstrap confidence interval capabilities is in the hopper, and the next major release will include the Intensity Scale (IS) technique. See the spatial forecast methods inter-comparison project (ICP) for more information on spatial methods such as IS. The primary application for MET is the WRF model, but it will ultimately allow for most any forecast model. A DTC workshop took place 16-19 April 2008 in Boulder, Colorado at Foothills Laboratory where presentations on verification methods and issues were given, and discussions about the future of MET (e.g., priorities for new additions and other logistical concerns such as how to handle contributed code).

In addition to MET, an R package called verification is developed and maintained by Matt Pocernich.