A New TAF Verification System in the National Weather Service

Charles K. Kluepfel

NWS Office of Climate Water and Weather Services, Performance Branch

E-mail: Charles.Kluepfel@noaa.gov Telephone: (301) 713-0090 x132.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is currently developing a terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) verification system with the following properties. (1) It will verify all scheduled and amended TAFs issued by all NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). (2) All observation and forecast data will be collected and archived nationally. (3) Each TAF will be verified and evaluated in its entirety, not just at a few “snapshots” in time as is currently the case. (4) All aspects of the TAF will be verified and evaluated. This includes forecasts of prevailing conditions, forecasts for temporary (TEMPO) changes to prevailing conditions, and probabilistic (PROB) forecasts. (5) The user will be able to access exactly the type and amount of verification statistics desired through a Web-based request/reply system. (6) Through an individual password system, each NWS forecaster will be able to access his/her personal verification statistics and have his/her privacy protected (only the holder of the password will be able to access the data). The system is expected to be implemented nationally in early 2003. A large part of this system will emulate the methodology used by Aviation Verify, a locally developed PC-based verification system, which is currently being used by all WFOs in the NWS on an interim basis until the national system is implemented. Aviation Verify was developed at the WFO in Oxnard, California, by Andrew Rorke, who is a NWS forecaster and a private pilot.