Verification Workshop: Making Verification More Meaningful

Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather Research Program and organized by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Forecast Systems Laboratory. Invited speakers sponsored by NCAR (NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation).


Program: Workshop on "Making Verification More Meaningful"

Select Author Name for Abstract - Paper Title for Paper in PDF Format

Tuesday, July 30
User and Operational Aspects
8:30-8:45 Barbara Brown Opening remarks
8:45-9:15 Harold Brooks (I) Forecast evaluation for fun and profit
9:15-9:45 Ian Mason (I) The cost of uncertainty: Quality-value relationships for yes/no forecasts in the signal detection model
9:45-10:05 Preston Leftwich Performance measures: A beginning rather than an end to assessment of warning and forecast operations
10:05-10:20 Break
10:20-10:40 Pertti Nurmi Operational forecast verification at Finnish Meteorological Institute - New approaches and plans
10:40-11:00 Jennifer Mahoney The Real-Time Verification System (RTVS)
11:00-11:20 Neftali Cajina Verification at NWS River Forecast Centers
11:20-11:40 Bob Glahn The NWS national verification integrated work team
11:40-12:00 Frederick Mosher Algorithms vs. forecasts: Why different verification methods are needed
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:00 Bruce Landsberg (I) User needs for forecast verification information: A general aviation perspective
2:00-2:20 Jim Evans Scoring of convective precipitation forecasts used for air traffic flow decision making
Scaling + Observations
2:20-2:50 Efi Foufoula-Georgiou (I) Scale issues in QPF verification
2:50-3:20 Break
3:20-3:50 Mike Kay (I) Practically perfect hindcasts for forecast verification and evaluation
3:50-4:10 Anna Ghelli Advantages of a gridded precipitation analysis to verify ECMWF precipitation forecasts over Europe
4:10-4:30 Rod Frehlich Prediction and verification of the observation errors for space-based lidar measurements of wind profiles
Poster Introductions
4:30-5:15 Barbara Brown An object-based diagnostic approach for QPF and convective forecast verification
Mike Chapman Verification of in-flight icing and turbulence algorithms: A gridded approach
Beth Ebert Fuzzy verification: Giving partial credit to erroneous forecasts
Tressa Fowler Confidence intervals for verification statistics
Kristie Franz A method for evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions
Anna Ghelli Ensemble forecasting of severe weather in the 3-5 days range: Proposals, validation and open questions
Ross Keith The value in probabilities for aerodrome forecasts
Chuck Kluepfel A new TAF verification system in the National Weather Service
Andrew Loughe Real-time verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts produced during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP)
Ian Mason The calibration of probability forecasts: A perspective from signal detection theory
5:30-7:00 Reception and Poster Session
Wednesday, July 31
Scaling + Observations
8:30-9:00 Ed Tollerud (I) Uncertainty of verification data
Advanced Methods
9:00-9:30 Beth Ebert (I) Verification of spatial forecasts
9:30-10:00 Mike Baldwin (I) Forecast characterization and implications for verification
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-10:50 Chris Davis Time-space representation of warm-season rainfall in weather prediction models
10:50-11:10 Cynthia Mueller Why is it so hard?
11:10-11:30 William Burrows Verification of statistical models for lightning prediction
11:30-11:50 Ian Jolliffe Statistical power - a neglected topic in forecast verification?
11:50-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:00 Laurence Wilson (I) Verification of ensemble forecasts - A survey
2:00-2:20 Tilmann Gneiting Assessing predictive distributions: A diagnostic approach
2:20-2:40 Barbara Casati New techniques for verifying spatial precipitation forecasts
2:40-3:00 Scott Sandgathe An automated mesoscale forecast verification system
3:00-3:30 Break
3:30-5:00 Working groups - I
7:00-? Colorado Shakespeare Festival (optional)
Thursday, August 1
Advanced Methods
9:00-9:20 William Gallus Equitable threat score applied to MCS rainfall: Scale dependence, disagreement with subjective evaluations and impact of phase-shifting
9:20-9:40 Jason Nachamkin Event-based mesoscale verification using meteorological composites
9:40-10:00 Eric Grimit Issues in mesoscale verification: Implications of the verification of high-resolution MM5 forecasts over the Pacific Northwest
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-12:00 Working groups - II
12:00-1:00 Lunch
1:00-2:20 Working group presentations
(20 min presentations, including questions and notes)
2:20-2:45 Break
2:45-4:30 Panel and final discussion "What approaches and efforts will lead to the greatest improvements in verification?"
5:30-8:00 Barbecue dinner at North Boulder Park





This page was last updated on July 17, 2002.