Work on the NCWF project began in 1997. It is mainly funded by the FAA. The goal of NCWF is to provide 1-2 hour convective hazard forecasts for the aviation community.
Currently, NCWF provides a 1 hour extrapolation forecast of convection. We have just finished transfering the current NCWF technology to the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, where it is being run operationally as a guidance product for the aviation community. The current data is available to the public via the Aviation Digital Data System (ADDS) (look at the "Convective" section).
The current focus of research for NCWF is an algorithm to recognize and forecast areas of convective growth. This algorithm will run RUC data through a fuzzy logic engine to determine areas of likely growth. It will then compare these likely areas with current radar and satellite data to determine where growth is actually occurring.
Future research will include initiation and decay algorithms.
Work on the OCND project began in 1999. This project focuses on providing realtime convective nowcasts to enroute flights in oceanic regions. There are two main problems being solved with this project:
In its current state, the OCND project maintains a realtime Web site giving the most current information we have for flights between San Francisco/Los Angeles and Sydney/Auckland. Graphical displays are being generated in realtime using character graphics that can be sent to the cockpit printers on the enroute flights. The convective nowcasts are currently based solely on GOES10 satellite data. The graphical displays are not yet being sent to the enroute flights because of difficulties in the communications system that have not yet been overcome.
OCND has several avenues of future research and growth. Scientifically, the algorithm will be improved by adding model data. The algorithm will also be transferred to other regions of the world, using whatever data is available in each region. Finally, the algorithm outputs will be used in conjunction with other initiatives designed to improve aircraft communications and cockpit display technologies.
Nancy Rehak