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  • A Beginners Introduction to the Analog Ensemble Technique


    Have you heard about the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique? Would you like to learn more about the technique and its evolution? Want to learn its possible applications and the current state-of-the-art research being conducted using this technique? Then come for a beginners adventure into the AnEn technique brought to you by the Warner Internship for Scientific Enrichment (WISE) Program!

     The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique was developed to generate a probability distribution function (PDF) of an expected outcome from a current deterministic forecast and corresponding sets of historical forecasts and verifying observations. The technique has implications in physical science subject areas where: 1) single deterministic predictions, past predictions, and their corresponding observations are available; 2) it is necessary to have quantifiable and justifiable measures of uncertainty; and 3) computational resources are precious.  The AnEn technique provides an alternative option for generating probabilistic forecasts without requiring the computational expense of a NWP ensemble thus allowing scientists to choose between the tradeoff of higher resolution modeling or ensemble modeling at a coarser resolution. The AnEn improves short-term weather prediction accuracy, decreases real-time computational costs, and provides spatial and temporal uncertainty estimation (Delle Monache et al. 2011; Delle Monache et al. 2013; Alessasndrini et al. 2015; Zhang et al. 2015).  Applications of the technique include but are not limited to: a range of weather parameters (e.g., 10-m and 80-m wind speed, 2-m temperature, relative humidity) solar power forecasting, wind power forecasting, air quality forecasting, tropical cyclone predictions, and downscaling of parameters as wind speed and precipitation.  

    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 1:00PM-2:00PM FL2-1001

    First Name: JessaLast Name: JohnsonPhone Extension (4 digits): 2751Email: jessaj@ucar.eduBuilding: Room Number: 1001Host lab/program/group: Calendar Timing: Tuesday, July 25, 2017 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
  • Weather risk transfer: A growing weather data-driven area of finance

    Day-to-day variability of weather like temperature, precipitation, and wind—which is distinct from natural catastrophes like hurricanes and severe thunderstorms—can have significant financial impact on sectors like energy, agriculture, water, construction, and outdoor entertainment, amongst others. Businesses and governments that hold weather risk can choose to transfer it to a financial institution like an insurer. They shed weather risk by paying a premium to the financial institution, in exchange for financial protection when weather is bad for business operations. Weather risk transfer has grown into a multi-billion dollar market because of ample historical weather data; a large appetite of financial institutions for weather risk; and the intuitive relationship between weather and the financial performance of weather-exposed entities. However, market growth has been slower than expected. This is largely due to a lack of independent advisors who understand weather and have the analysis expertise to quantify the linkages between weather and a weather-exposed entity’s financial performance. Such an advisor would be well positioned to translate weather into the financial concern of interest, creating an environmental and economic opportunity for the advisor, weather-exposed entities, sellers of financial protection, and the broader weather risk transfer market.

    At Nephila Advisors LLC, Matthew has the role of Portfolio Analyst and works within the Weather Risk investment strategy. Matthew's expertise includes designing customized risk transfer products; quantifying the frequency and severity of weather and water events; and ongoing portfolio management and business development. He joined the company in July 2011 and previously worked at Citadel LLC and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), giving him a unique blend of experience in capital markets, insurance, and weather risk management. Matthew has an MBA in Finance from the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, an MS in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University, and a BS in Chemistry and Environmental Sciences from the University of Virginia. Matthew is an alumnus of NCAR’s SOARS internship program.

    Tuesday, June 27, 2017 1:30PM-2:30PM FL2-1001

     First Name: JessaLast Name: JohnsonPhone Extension (4 digits): 2751Email: jessaj@ucar.eduBuilding: Room Number: 1001Host lab/program/group: Type of event: Calendar Timing: Tuesday, June 27, 2017 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm

About RAL

RAL's mission is to conduct directed research that contributes to the fundamental understanding of the atmosphere and related physical, biological, and social systems; to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities of the scientific community, and to develop and transfer knowledge and technology for the betterment of life on Earth.

I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human betterment and improve human welfare.       - Walter Orr Roberts

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